Croatia vs Poland Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Croatia vs Poland
- Croatia Victory with odds of @1.74 on Stake, equating to a 57.5% chance of the home side earning all three points.
- Luka Modric to score @TBA on Stake
- Both teams to score with odds of @1.74 on Stake, representing a 57.5% chance for both clubs to find the back of the net.
Croatia can beat Poland 2-1 in a tight affair.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Croatia host Poland on matchday 2 of the Nations League on Sunday as they look to put a disappointing European Championship behind them.
Zlatko Dalic’s team were dumped out of Euro 2024 at the group stages. They were demolished by Spain in their opening match of the tournament before draws with Albania and Italy. Two points weren’t enough to secure a place in the knockout stages.
Despite their summer setback, Croatia remain a dangerous opponent. They topped their Nations League group last time around, finishing ahead of Denmark, France and Austria, three sides who did make it to the knockout stages of Euro 2024.
Poland also exited the Euros after playing just three matches. They earned their only point in an impressive draw with France in their final group game but never looked like qualifying.
Michal Probierz took over Poland when they were at their lowest ebb for quite some time. He managed to arrest the slump and the upturn in form meant they were able to secure qualification to the Euros by beating Wales. Probierz will want to see his team develop even further ahead of the next World Cup.
Probable Lineups for Croatia vs Poland
The probable lineup for Croatia in the "system of play."
Livakovic; Juranovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Pasalic, Kovacic: Kramaric, Perisic, Petkovic
The probable lineup for Poland in the "system of play."
Skorupski; Bednarek Kiwior, Dawidowicz; Frankowski, Zelinski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Zalewski; Piatek, Lewandowski
Home Side to Emerge Victorious
The first of our Croatia vs Poland predictions is for the home side to emerge victorious.
Croatia have won their last four matches in this competition. During that impressive run, they beat Austria 3-1, Denmark 2-1 and France 1-0. Spain are the only team to have beaten the Croatians in their last nine matches. Dalic’s side have scored an average of 1.67 goals per game during that run, 0.67 more than their opponents.
These teams haven’t gone toe-to-toe since the 2008 European Championships but Croatia did win 1-0 on that occasion.
Croatia vs Poland Bet 1: Croatia Victory @1.74 with Stake.
Modric to Find the Target
Croatia’s strength is in the midfield. Luka Modric announced he will continue playing for his country despite being in the swansong of his career and he can help create chances for the attack here. The Real Madrid man also takes spot kicks for Croatia so we are backing him to find the net here.
At club level, Modric has some of the world’s finest attackers ahead of him but Croatia lack a clinical forward. This means that Luka needs to contribute more in the attacking phase than he otherwise would. His non-penalty xG of 0.08 per 90 minutes played in the last year is nothing to shout about but he has scored in two of his last four games for Croatia.
Croatia vs Poland Bet 2: Luka Modric Anytime Scorer @TBA on Stake
Poland’s Recent Match Have Seen Plenty of Goals
The last of our tips for this match is for both teams to score.
Croatia failed to keep a clean sheet at the European Championships and this bet landed in their final two matches. The Spain defeat was the only game where this bet didn’t land but the Croatians finished the game with an xG of 2.38 despite being unable to find the net.
Under their new manager, Poland matches have seen an average of 2.73 goals per game with Probierz’s side scoring 1.73 of those. This bet has won in their last five matches and the average goals climbs to 3.2 per game over that period.
Croatia vs Poland Bet 3: Both Teams to Score @1.74 with Stake