The Opta Analyst say Real have a 76.4% chance of topping Group H, but the betting markets have overvalued their prospects, pricing them at 86%.
| Club World Cup Group H Winner Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 1.17 |
| Al Hilal Riyadh | 9.00 |
| RB Salzburg | 10.00 |
| Pachuca | 21.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Group H is the most straightforward one to bet on at the 2025 Club World Cup
Real Madrid were fortunate with the draw. Los Blancos were handed a seemingly straightforward passage to the 2025 Club World Cup knockout stages with three favourable Group H opponents.
Real are the overwhelming favourites to win Group H – and rightly so. The rest of the group comprises Saudi Pro side Al Hilal Riyadh, Austrian side, RB Salzburg, and Mexican outfit, Pachuca.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid missed out on winning the 2024/25 La Liga title, but they are the overwhelming favourites to win the 2025 Club World Cup. This means their odds to win Group H are incredibly short.
Real have added to their squad ahead of the tournament. Liverpool’s creative right-back, Trent Alexander-Arnold, has agreed to join.
Spanish centre-half, Dean Huijsen, has also been signed from Premier League side AFC Bournemouth. Huijsen is one of the most promising defenders of his generation and a major coup for Real’s backline.
Los Blancos also have a new head coach at the helm for the 2025 Club World Cup. Carlo Ancelotti departed this summer to take charge of the Brazilian national team. Former Real midfielder, Xabi Alonso, has officially agreed to take charge after a hugely successful spell with German side Bayer Leverkusen.
Al Hilal Riyadh
Saudi Pro League side, Al Hilal Riyadh, are the second favourites to finish first in Group H. Al Hilal finished second in the 2024/25 Saudi Pro League. They’ve changed manager this month, bringing in former Inter Milan boss, Simone Inzaghi, on a two-year deal.
Al Hilal have several high-profile players in their squad. Former Napoli defender, Kalidou Koulibaly, is a powerhouse defender that was once linked to Real Madrid. Key figures also include the stylish Portuguese midfielder, Ruben Neves, and the prolific goalscorer, Aleksandar Mitrovic.
Additionally, the team boast experienced Saudi international stars, such as club captain Salem Al-Dawsari.
RB Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga side, RB Salzburg, missed out on the domestic title by two points to SK Sturm Graz. Salzburg qualified for the 2025 Club World Cup by virtue of being the 15th-best performing side in the Champions League over the last four years.
The 2024/25 season goes down as one of major disappointments for Salzburg. It extends their run without an Austrian Bundesliga title to two years running, after a decade of dominance.
RB Salzburg’s 2024/25 Champions League form was disappointing too, finishing 34th in the 36-team league table. Their star forward is Mali international, Dorgeles Nene, who is already catching the eye of bigger European clubs.
Pachuca
Mexican side Pachuca reached the 2025 Club World Cup by winning the 2024 Champions Cup over MLS side Columbus Crew.
According to Opta’s Power Rankings, which ranks all of the best clubs in the world, Pachuca are on par with bottom-half EFL Championship teams.
Pachuca’s domestic form has not been good of late. In the 2024/25 Liga MX campaign, Pachuca finished third-bottom in the first half of the season. They improved to finish eighth in the second half of the year.
Value seekers should avoid Real’s Group H winner odds
We’ve already touched on the betting markets overvaluing Real’s chances of winning Group H. While we agree they are heavy favourites, it’s not worth backing them when the odds are lower than the expected probability.
One option would be to steer clear of betting on the Group H outrights market at all, but if you’re looking for an outright angle, Real’s Saudi Arabian opponents could offer some value.
Al Hilal Riyadh faced Real in the 2022 Club World Cup. They lost 5-3 in a highly entertaining contest. They scored three goals and posed a serious threat. That contrasts with Real’s 5-1 hammering of RB Salzburg in this season’s Champions League.
Real also faced off against their third and final Group H opponent Pachuca at the Intercontinental Cup in December. Carlo Ancelotti’s men strolled to a 3-0 win.
Comparing the three results, it’s clear to see that Al Hilal are the only credible contenders to Real’s Group H throne. Al Hilal do have several potential match winners in their roster. Koulibaly, Mitrovic, Al-Dawsari, Neves, Cancelo and Milinkovic-Savic are all well-known players in football circles and could have influential roles to play this summer.
The betting markets currently price Al Hilal as having an 11.11% chance of winning Group H. Meanwhile, the Opta Analyst believe it’s 12.3%.
There’s some value to be found here. If Mitrovic finds his scoring touch, that percentage could be closer to 15%-20%, making 11.11% a useful value bet.
In summary, we’re steering clear of backing Real’s Group H odds, but we still see them as one of the contenders to win the tournament outright.