With Filipe Luis leading Flamengo, we’ll explain why only two teams have a real chance to win Group D.
| Club World Cup Group D Winner Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.57 |
| Flamengo | 3.25 |
| Los Angeles FC | 7.00 |
| Esperance de Tunis | 41.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Group D’s clear favourites make betting simpler
While some groups at the 2025 Club World Cup appear to be more open than others, Group D is likely to have a more predictable outcome. Premier League big spenders Chelsea have been paired with Brazilian powerhouses Flamengo, as well as MLS side Los Angeles FC, and Tunisian minnows Esperance de Tunis.
Chelsea
Chelsea have stormed into the Champions League qualification spots in the closing stages of the 2024/25 Premier League season. The big-spending Blues performed well at just the right time to secure Champions League football next term.
Enzo Maresca is building a young and exciting squad that has the potential to be explosive and unstoppable. Meanwhile, this young and vibrant team is still inconsistent and inexperienced on the biggest stage.
They’ve continued to add to their squad in the lead-up to the 2025 Club World Cup, as Liam Delap has joined from Ipswich Town after an impressive debut season in the Premier League. He’ll be eager to impress and could challenge Nicolas Jackson for a spot in the starting lineup.
Flamengo
Brazilian outfit Flamengo are the best-supported club in the country, and they will be the center of attention at this summer’s Club World Cup. They are in excellent domestic form and sit at the top of the Brazilian Serie A, having conceded only four goals in 11 matches.
Meanwhile, they've been prolific in attack, as they currently average 2.18 goals scored per game. Their top scorer and most influential player is Giorgian de Arrascaeta. He’s netted nine goals and four assists in nine Brazilian Serie A games.
The experienced Uruguayan international has never been in better form. Also, he’s a major presence in the team, having spent the last seven years with Mengao.
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC have only been playing in the MLS as an expansion team for seven years, but their continental form has earned them a spot in the 2025 Club World Cup.
In contrast, their domestic form has been patchy throughout this season. They’ve won only seven of their 16 MLS games and sit fifth in the Western Conference. However, they have managed to secure a morale-boosting 3-1 win over Sporting KC in their final MLS game before their Club World Cup campaign.
Former Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud is among the LA FC ranks and will be eager to face his former club. Denis Bouanga is central to their goal-scoring and creativity in the final third. The journeyman French forward is their key player, having scored 48 goals in the last two-and-a-half seasons.
Esperance de Tunis
Esperance de Tunis are the giants of Tunisian football but are relative minnows in global football terms. They have 34 top-flight titles to their name in Tunisia and have won the African Champions League four times, most recently in 2018/19.
The Smiling One have participated three times at the Club World Cup, with their best result being fifth place in a smaller-scale version of the tournament.
Algerian winger Youcef Belaili is Esperance de Tunis’ biggest threat. Currently in his third tenure with the Smiling One, the left-sided forward, who has earned 57 international caps, is one of their most experienced players. Moreover, they have a pair of Brazilian players, Rodrigo Rodrigues and Yan Sasse, who have played professionally in Brazil before they were transferred to the Tunisian capital.
Why it’s hard to back Chelsea to top Group D at such low odds
The betting markets currently give Chelsea a 73.53% chance to win Group D. However, the return on backing the Blues at such low odds isn’t worth the risk.
Chelsea’s young squad have battled hard to clinch a top-four finish in the Premier League, in addition to being involved in recent international friendlies. It’s possible that Maresca’s men will be too physically and mentally jaded to star in this summer’s tournament.
As for Flamengo, they are full of confidence ahead of their 2025 domestic campaign. Former Chelsea midfielder Jorginho is a calming presence in front of their backline. Meanwhile, former Marseille and Roma midfielder Gerson is the team’s strong captain.
At a probability of just 26.67% to win Group D, a small bet on Flamengo to top the table could be the value play. Backing Flamengo and Chelsea to qualify out of Group D could be a smart move, if it’s even possible.
The Los Angeles FC roster doesn’t have elite-level quality and experience, and as a result, they will struggle despite playing on home soil. The team lacks its former stars, Diego Rossi and Carlos Vela, which could make a tournament such as this unpredictable.
As for Esperance de Tunis, they may have an opportunity to push for third place in Group D if they can get a positive result over LA FC. They have a winning mentality, having lost only two of their 30 league games in the 2024/25 Tunisian top division.