According to Opta Analyst, Al Ahly Cairo have an 18.3% chance of topping Group A, so there is plenty of underdog value on the Egyptians.
| Club World Cup Group A Winner Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| FC Porto | 2.38 |
| Palmeiras | 2.75 |
| Inter Miami | 4.33 |
| Al Ahly Cairo | 10.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Group A feels a wide-open affair at the 2025 Club World Cup
While most groups at this summer’s Club World Cup have a clear favourite, Group A appears to be one of the most competitive. With no huge outright favourite to top Group A, all four teams will fancy their chances of progressing to the knockout stages.
FC Porto
FC Porto are part of Portugal’s ‘Big Three’, but they have finished outside the top two places in the Portuguese Primeira Liga for the past two seasons. This would’ve been unthinkable for Porto fans in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Although they are the highest-rated team in Group A and the fifth-best European team in the tournament, there are plenty of question marks over Porto’s Club World Cup potential.
Porto were edged out of the Europa League in the first knockout stage by AS Roma. This means they failed to make progress in continental football during the 2024/25 season, let alone world club football.
They do possess firepower with Samu Aghehowa, the Primeira Liga’s second top scorer, leading the attack, while youngster Rodrigo Mora brings the ‘X Factor’ from midfield. However, the squad lack sufficient quality in key areas to consider them clear favourites to win Group A.
Palmeiras
Brazilian giants Palmeiras are one of the most in-form teams in Brazilian football. They won back-to-back Serie A titles in 2022 and 2023 but could only come second to Botafogo in 2024. They are well-positioned to mount another strong challenge in 2025.
It’s their Copa Libertadores form that’s truly turned heads. They’ve won all six of their continental football games so far this season to top Group G, with almost three goals scored per game.
Like Porto, Palmeiras also have a standout young talent in Estevao. Last week, the 18-year-old was handed his Brazilian national team debut by new coach Carlo Ancelotti. He has pre-agreed a move to Chelsea after this tournament, so he’ll be desperate to leave his boyhood club on a high.
Inter Miami
Inter Miami secured a somewhat fortunate spot in the 2025 Club World Cup as ‘hosts’. It may also have something to do with the fact their squad contain none other than Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez.
The Herons are currently in third place in the MLS Eastern Conference. They’ve been in fine form of late, winning their last game 5-1 against an in-form Columbus Crew. Lionel Messi notched a couple of goals, while Suarez also got on the scoresheet.
Inter Miami’s issue isn’t scoring goals, it’s keeping them out at the other end. No team in the top seven of the Eastern Conference has conceded more than Inter Miami. Their open approach promises plenty of entertainment, but the likes of Porto and Palmeiras should be able to pick them off on the counter-attack.
Al Ahly Cairo
Egyptian side Al Ahly are the bookmakers’ outsiders for Group A in the Club World Cup. However, the 12-time African Champions League winners are a major force to be reckoned with in African football.
Al Ahly have won the Egyptian top flight a staggering 45 times. They will have a new head coach for this tournament too. Former Orlando Pirates coach, Jose Riveiro, is taking the helm.
This team’s attacking threat comes from midfield, particularly Emam Ashour, who has been Al Ahly’s top scorer in the league and in continental competition. It’s also worth noting that this club has finished third in four previous Club World Cup tournaments, including 2021 and 2023.
Why the Brazilian champions feel like the sensible play here
Based on form and value, there are two teams worth backing in the Group A Winner market.
Palmeiras have been given a 34.84% chance of topping Group A in the betting markets. The Brazilians have rarely been on the losing side in recent seasons, and their Copa Libertadores record in 2025 suggests they can handle different playing styles.
Porto have been given a 42.19% chance of winning Group A. This seems puzzling. It just feels like the reputation of European teams has been overpriced in this instance. Porto lost 2-0 in a warm-up friendly to Latvian side Riga FC on Sunday. This destroyed what little confidence we had in backing them in the outrights.
Inter Miami will have Lionel Messi in their ranks, which is still a huge weapon for any team’s arsenal. However, the fitness of Luis Suarez remains uncertain, while the likes of Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets are by no means at the peak of their powers.
The Herons’ defensive record is a major concern too, with bigger, more established sides eager to exploit Inter Miami’s wide-open structure.
The other value play appears to be Al Ahly Cairo. Opta Analyst believe the Egyptians have an 18.3% chance of winning Group A. However, the betting markets assign them a probability of only 10%.
We suggest putting a more serious bet on Palmeiras to win Group A, with a smaller outside punt on the Egyptians, especially given their performances at recent Club World Cups.