Trust Maresca: Chelsea Are Value For Top Four Without Osimhen Or David

The Blues might not be spending as much as in the previous transfer windows, but there’s still value to be had even if they don’t land a striker.

1. Chelsea had the fourth-best expected goal difference in the Premier League last season
2. Enzo Maresca won 68% of his matches in charge of Leicester
3. Chelsea have not had three consecutive seasons outside the top four in over 20 years.

Odds courtesy of BC.Game. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Jackson Can Do The Job

Aside from Diego Costa’s brief period of dominance, Chelsea’s pursuit of a long-term number nine has lingered around the club since Didier Drogba’s departure. Alvaro Morata, Fernando Torres, and various others have tried and failed. There were good signs from Nicolas Jackson in his debut Premier League campaign, though he’s still raw, and links with other strikers have persisted.

Jonathan David and Victor Osimhen have been two of Chelsea’s long-term targets. David is now heavily linked with Roma, Tottenham, and Atletico Madrid. Victor Osimhen is seemingly heading to PSG.

The question, then, is whether Chelsea need another striker. Jackson scored 14 Premier League goals last season. Yes, he would ideally be a lot more clinical like he was in his final season with Villarreal, but he was also fourth in non-penalty expected goals per 90.

Crucially, Chelsea’s attack created chances at will. Only four teams had more expected goals. They were fourth in expected goal difference for the season.

Blue Have Enough For Top Four

When it comes to the outright betting markets, Chelsea are too short at 1.50 for a top-six finish. The 2.37 on a top-four placing has some appeal, however. If Manchester City and Arsenal are locks for the Champions League places, there is uncertainty behind them.

Liverpool are likely in limbo after Jurgen Klopp’s departure. Chelsea are in a better spot than Manchester United (-12.5 expected goal difference last season), and Tottenham’s underlying metrics were a long way off the numbers the Blues had under Mauricio Pochettino. Aston Villa will struggle with the demands of the Champions League.

Enzo Maresca, of course, is unproven at this level, but his Leicester team had comfortably the highest number of expected goals in the Championship last term. Their expected goal difference was the best in the league, too.

Osimhen or David would give Maresca more options in the final third, and perhaps be an upgrade over Jackson. A new striker isn’t a necessity, though, with Jackson ranking in the 91st percentile in non-penalty expected goals, and posting above average numbers for both progressive passes and carries.

It looks like Chelsea are not going to land either of their top-two striker targets, but that shouldn’t be too much of a concern for bettors. They are still worth backing for top four at 2.37.