PSG, Bayern Munich and Barcelona lead the continental challenge to stop the English teams, five of whom are already through to the round of 16.
| Champions League markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| A German winner | 4.50 |
| A Spanish winner | 4.00 |
| PSG to win the trophy | 9.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Premier League supremacy no guarantee of knockout success
Real Madrid’s dismal 4-2 loss to Benfica allowed Manchester City to sneak into the top eight on the final matchday. They joined Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, and table-topping Arsenal in bypassing the play-off round, which will feature Newcastle United.
With the Magpies favourites to progress, it’s likely there’ll be a record-breaking six English clubs in the round of 16. That speaks volumes about how powerful the Premier League has become.
The underlying data from the league phase also highlights the English top flight’s unparalleled strength in depth. The six Premier League clubs are all ranked in the top 10 in terms of xGD (expected goal difference). England also accounted for six of the top 11 when it came to xPTS (expected points).
However, strong league phase performances are far from a guarantee of success in the latter stages. There was evidence of that last season, when league-topping Liverpool lost in the round of 16. They were beaten by eventual champions PSG, who had finished 15th in the initial phase.
Doubts remain about whether any of the six English clubs have what it takes to go all the way this year. Arguably, none currently match the level of the Reds side that were outplayed by PSG last March.
A favourable schedule, the easiest in the entire competition according to fixture difficulty data, contributed to Spurs finishing fourth. They’re down in 14th in the Premier League and surely not serious contenders in Europe. Newcastle aren’t faring much better on the domestic stage. They’ll face an away second leg if they reach the last 16.
Man City and Chelsea are both in the process of rebuilding their teams, with the latter under new management. This time, Champions League glory seems like a bridge too far for Pep Guardiola, let alone the inexperienced Liam Rosenior.
Is it time to bet against an English winner?
Liverpool can never be discounted on the European stage. They’re arguably better suited to playing Champions League matches against teams who don’t sit deep.
As six-time winners, there are also no major mental obstacles to overcome, which isn’t the case at Arsenal. The Gunners finished the league phase with a 100% record, conceding just two goals before a dead rubber against Kairat. However, they’ve never won the trophy and have a notably poor overall record in semi-finals under Mikel Arteta.
That suggests Liverpool may be the value bet among the remaining Premier League sides. However, Arne Slot will still need to get much more out of his players if they’re to go far in the competition.
There’s an implied probability of 54.5% that we’ll get an English winner. Given the doubts about the remaining Premier League contingent, betting on an alternative victor seems the way to go.
Bayern Munich have been very strong so far this season. They won seven out of eight in the league phase, securing home second legs throughout the knockout stage.
The Bavarians have won 87% of their matches in all competitions and are sure to cruise to the Bundesliga title. That should also benefit them later in the Champions League. With Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund also still involved, backing a German winner looks appealing with an implied probability of 22.2%.
PSG are the only serious French candidates and are given an 11.1% chance of winning the trophy. They’ve not been at their best, yet still ranked fourth for xPTS in the league phase with 15.8. Having grown into last season’s competition in spectacular fashion, they appear strong at such long odds.
Barcelona’s weak defence, and chaotic times on and off the pitch at Real Madrid, suggest we won’t get a Spanish winner. However, Los Blancos have recovered from such circumstances in the past. Having won six of the last 12 editions of the Champions League, they can never be totally ruled out.