Lionel Messi and Argentina will take on Luka Modrić and Croatia on Tuesday in the World Cup semi-finals at Lusail Iconic Stadium.
Zlatko Dalić's Croatian side will seek a return trip to the finals after their 2018 loss to France in Russia. To do so, the Vatreni will need to turn away a South American juggernaut for the second consecutive match after defeating Brazil on penalties in the quarter-finals.
It is no surprise that Messi’s Albiceleste have reached this stage of the tournament, having entered as a top favorite. However, Argentina’s journey has been riddled with its own drama.
After surviving a late surge by the Netherlands, which included a 100th-minute equalizer by Wout Weghorst and 17 yellow cards, Argentina will look to advance to the finals for the sixth time.
Will Croatia become the fourth team to reach back-to-back World Cup finals? Or will Argentina win for the first time since 1986? Let’s look at current betting odds to determine best bets and make a match prediction.
Argentina vs Croatia Current Odds
- 3-way handicap: Argentina (-120) | Draw (+230) | Croatia (+360)
- Draw No Bet: Argentina (-300) | Croatia (+210)
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-190)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (+115) | No (-165)
Argentina vs Croatia odds are current as of Monday, Dec. 12, at 9 a.m. ET from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Sportsbooks have Argentina listed as a moderate favorite in their showdown with Croatia, with a strong lean toward the Under.
There is plenty of value on each side to make a profit, so there is no need to get creative.
- Looking to wager on sports? Head to The Game Day for the latest sports betting odds.
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction
Argentina 2-0 Croatia
Despite Croatia’s impressive showing against Brazil, I am backing Argentina to deliver Messi his first World Cup victory.
Messi has created 16 chances at the 2022 World Cup, which is second to only French forward Antoine Griezmann (17). No player on Croatia has more than five.
The individual brilliance of one player is typically a recipe for disaster, but it is what led Argentina to defeat the Netherlands, and I expect more of the same versus the Vatreni.
Croatia will need to duplicate the defensive masterclass implemented against Brazil, led by Modric, Mateo Kovačić, and Marcelo Brozović if they hope to upset Argentina. However, La Albiceleste should be prepared for such tactics due to their similar play style.
I would expect a low-scoring, highly-contested match that is decided by corner kicks and individual brilliance. Both of these categories favor Argentina.
Argentina vs Croatia Betting Tips
- Argentina and Croatia have met twice at the World Cup, winning one match apiece.
- Croatia defeated Argentina 3-0 during the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
- Only Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany have reached back-to-back World Cup finals.
- Croatia have scored in all 10 of their World Cup knockout matches.
- The quarter-finals featured a combined six goals and zero clean sheets for these two nations.
- Croatia have reached extra time in five of their last six World Cup knockout matches.
Argentina vs Croatia Best Bets
➕ Argentina to Win & Croatia Not To Score (+165) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, I expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Argentina have conceded the fewest expected goals (0.35) and shots per 90 minutes (4.12) among the remaining teams in the World Cup.
Look for Argentina’s defensive line to shut down Croatia and secure a clean sheet on their way to the finals.
- Click to bet on this wager at BetMGM. Get up to $1,000 Risk-Free when you create a new player account or use promo code GOAL1000.