While Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane lead the race this summer, an expanded 48-team tournament could see many players post high goal figures.
| World Cup Golden Boot market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo | 41.00 |
| Luis Diaz | 51.00 |
| Jeremy Doku | 67.00 |
| Jamal Musiala | 67.00 |
| Matheus Cunha | 67.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The surprise top scorers at the World Cup
The 2022 Golden Boot was won by Mbappe in one of the most predictable outcomes at recent tournaments. He was jostling with 2018 winner Kane for the favourites tag in the build-up to that World Cup. However, that’s the only time an outright favourite or joint-favourite has triumphed since at least the 1980s.
England were not fancied for a long run at the 2018 World Cup. Other strikers were seen as more likely top scorers than Kane.
The previous two Golden Boot winners were James Rodriguez for Colombia in 2014 and Thomas Muller for Germany in 2010. Both were given a pre-tournament implied probability of around 3% of finishing as the top scorer.
Miroslav Klose was a slightly less surprising winner in 2006, but he wasn’t the outright favourite. The German holds the record for the most goals at the World Cup, with 16 across four tournaments.
The last time the competition was held in the USA, Russia’s Oleg Salenko and Bulgaria’s Hristo Stoichkov surprisingly shared the award. Salenko was a complete outsider, given around a 1% chance of winning the Golden Boot before a ball was kicked.
Salvatore Schillaci and Davor Suker were also unexpected World Cup top scorers in the 1990s. Even Brazil’s Ronaldo was not the outright favourite in 2002, following serious injury problems over the previous years.
History clearly shows that players given an implied win probability of 3% or even less can compete for the Golden Boot. That suggests the 2026 tournament will finish with at least one player from outside the 10 favourites among the four highest scorers.
Backing outsiders with an each-way bet could prove a profitable strategy. Many bookmakers offer a return on a player who finishes in the top four for goals scored.
Who are the best outside bets to win the 2026 Golden Boot?
Potential candidates away from the most obvious contenders include Cody Gakpo. He’s a guaranteed starter for the Netherlands and is also likely to take penalties.
The Dutch averaged 3.38 goals per game in qualifying. Gakpo has proven tournament pedigree, having finished as the joint-top scorer at Euro 2024 with three goals. He could be worth backing, with an implied probability of 2.4%.
Jamal Musiala also ended Euro 2024 on three goals. He has featured heavily in Germany’s warm-up games, which suggests he’ll be a key figure for Julian Nagelsmann this summer.
Die Mannschaft are involved in one of the biggest mismatches in the group stage when they take on Curacao. Germany are projected to score more than four goals in that game, and a well-rested Musiala could profit. He’s an incisive player who will operate just off the striker, which should serve up opportunities throughout the tournament.
Jeremy Doku appears to offer value at around the same price as Musiala. Belgium are in a weak group, which also features Iran, Egypt and New Zealand. Doku scored five goals and averaged 3.4 shots per game across eight qualifying appearances. He should thrive.
Colombia are another potential dark horse, and their attacking play will revolve around Luis Diaz. A 26-goal return for Bayern Munich this term showed he can be prolific from a wide position. He also finished joint-second behind only Lionel Messi, with seven goals in World Cup qualifying in South America.
Diaz appears to be a good each-way option, but much will depend on how far Los Cafeteros advance. By contrast, Brazil’s hopes of reaching the last four are much bigger. Several of their attacking players could potentially mount a challenge, particularly if they fire against Haiti in the group stage.
The best value may lie with Matheus Cunha. He could potentially benefit from Neymar’s injury to establish himself as the starting striker.
Despite a modest 10-goal return in his debut season for Man Utd, he ended the campaign in good form. One or two big displays in the opening phase would make him tough to drop heading into the knockout rounds.