The fixture was originally intended to be played at Parc des Princes, but Les Parisiens’ unfit playing surface saw the game moved back to Brittany.
Best bets for Rennes vs PSG
- PSG - PSG (half-time - full-time) at odds of 2.05 with Stake
- PSG -1 (handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.10 with Stake
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 with Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Rennes 1-3 PSG
- Goalscorers prediction: Rennes: Lepaul - PSG: Dembélé x2, Kvaratskhelia
Ligue 1 opens with an unplanned twist: PSG begin their title defence away from home. With the Parc des Princes surface ruined by successive heatwaves and judged unsafe, the LFP inverted the fixture, sending the champions to Roazhon Park.
Luis Enrique's side arrive with mixed evidence. They retained the Super Cup by beating Aston Villa 2-1. They then lost the Trophée des Champions 1-0 at ten-man Lens, after which the coach demanded physical and technical improvement.
Nuno Mendes begins a three-match ban for his red card, so Lucas Digne should deputise. Ferran Torres and Mika Godts are now registered, while Bradley Barcola and Ibrahim Mbaye remain unsettled amid Liverpool interest.
Franck Haise's pre-season ended with three straight defeats to Lens, Brentford and Sunderland. However, Esteban Lepaul, last season's 21-goal Ligue 1 top scorer, added seven more in friendlies.
Mahdi Camara is suspended, while Fofana and Blas were rested in midweek. Embolo, James, Brassier, Seidu and Cissé trained separately and are all expected to leave.
Probable lineups for Rennes vs PSG
Paris Saint-Germain expected lineup: Safonov, Hakimi, Zabarnyi, Pacho, Digne, Zaïre-Emery, Vitinha, João Neves, Akliouche, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia
Stade Rennais expected lineup: Samba, Frankowski, Aït Boudlal, Rouault, Merlin, Rongier, Thomasson, Tamari, Szymański, Soumaré, Lepaul
Value on visitors to lead at the break and hold on
PSG have led at the interval in four of the last five meetings. They went on to win all four, meaning the PSG/PSG half-time/full-time outcome has been successful in four of the last five meetings.
Luis Enrique's side also have a point to prove after losing the Trophée des Champions 1-0 at ten-man Lens. It was a night the coach admitted exposed physical and technical shortcomings.
The caveat is the fifth game: February's trip to Roazhon Park, where Rennes led 1-0 at half-time and won 3-1. Nevertheless, we can back PSG - PSG at a 49% probability, as this outcome has occurred 80% of the time in the last five match-ups.
- Rennes vs PSG Bet 1: PSG - PSG (half-time - full-time) at odds of 2.05 with Stake
PSG to take the win by at least a two-goal margin
Three of the last six meetings have finished with a PSG win by two or more - 5-0, 4-1 and 3-1. The raw strike rate is above the betting markets’ current implied probability of 48%.
Rennes leaked goals all summer, losing to Lens, Brentford and Sunderland. They are also without the suspended Mahdi Camara. Meanwhile, Jordan James has departed and Bree Embolo, Lilian Brassier, Alidu Seidu and Djaoui Cissé are all edging towards exits.
Although PSG’s enforced pitch switch means this is now an away game for Les Parisiens, we believe they can cover this line. Marquinhos, Neves and Dembélé are all strong candidates to come back in after the Lens loss, which should bolster PSG.
- Rennes vs PSG Bet 2: PSG -1 (handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.10 with Stake
Head-to-head data leans towards goals and both teams scoring
This pick is the most statistically robust of our three Rennes vs PSG predictions. Over 2.5 goals has landed in four of the last five meetings. Both sides scored in five of the last seven.
Esteban Lepaul provides the Rennes half of the equation. His 21 Ligue 1 goals made him France's leading scorer last season. He added seven more across pre-season, including the opener at Sunderland.
PSG conceded in both competitive outings this month, against Aston Villa and Lens. They also lose Nuno Mendes to the first of a three-match ban this weekend. At an implied probability of 55.7%, this is a value play as it feels closer to a 70%-75% shot.
- Rennes vs PSG Bet 3: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 with Stake