Portugal were fortunate to win in Norway last week, with the hosts being miles ahead on xG. Can they do it again for a second time in a short span?
Best bets for Portugal vs Norway
- Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at odds of 1.75 with 1xBet
- Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at odds of 2.80 with 1xBet
- Draw/Norway (Double chance) at odds of 2.20 with 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Portugal 2-2 Norway
- Goalscorers prediction: Portugal: Ramos, Neto - Norway: Haaland, Bobb
Portugal host Norway at Estádio do Dragão on Monday in League A, Group 4 of the Nations League. The fixture is a rematch of last week's meeting in Oslo, where Portugal won 2-1 away.
Portugal were superb in their most recent match against Denmark in Copenhagen on Thursday. They won 4-2 through João Cancelo, Gonçalo Ramos, Vitinha and João Félix providing goals. Bruno Fernandes set up two of those goals.
Unfortunately, much of the media scrutiny is currently centred on Cristiano Ronaldo, who has left the national team camp recently. The Portugal legend was an unused sub against Norway and didn’t get any minutes versus Denmark.
Despite the commotion around Cristiano Ronaldo, Jorge Jesus has won all three games in charge. Portugal lead the group with nine points from possible nine and are in a good place to qualify in first place.
Norway suffered a surprise 2-1 loss to Wales on the same night. Oscar Bobb opened the scoring before Dan James equalised. Neco Williams secured the win for the home side with a stellar free-kick after the break.
Norway will be without Torbjørn Heggem, who was sent off 21 seconds into the second half against Wales. Haaland managed only two shots in Cardiff and failed to score, but the early send-off completely changed the course of the entire game. Norway currently sit third in the group, level on points with both Wales and Denmark.
Probable lineups for Portugal vs Norway
Portugal expected lineup: Costa, Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes, Neves, Vitinha, Neto, Fernandes, Leão, Ramos
Norway expected lineup: Nyland, Ryerson, Ajer, Østigård, Wolfe, Ødegaard, Berge, Berg, Bobb, Haaland, Nusa
Norwegians can’t seem to keep a clean sheet
Norwegian games are almost certain to bring a lot of entertainment. Both teams have scored in each of their last 11 matches, with Norway conceding two goals four games in a row.
The numbers tell a clear story. All three of Norway’s games yielded at least 3 goals, and both teams scored in each of them. They started off by beating Denmark 3-2 but then lost 2-1 to Portugal and 2-1 against Wales.
Portugal are struggling defensively, having allowed two goals in their most recent 4-2 win in Copenhagen on Thursday. Furthermore, Heggem's suspension will weaken an already generous Norway defence. Therefore, based on the evidence provided, we believe there’s a fair chance of both teams scoring and 3+ goals landing, with a 57% implied probability.
- Portugal vs Norway Bet 1: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at odds of 1.75 with 1xBet
Fernandes to keep doing what he does best
Bruno Fernandes is the one pulling the strings for Portugal in Cristiano Ronaldo’s absence. He set up two of their four goals in Copenhagen, with those being his first assists of this Nations League campaign.
His role is key for Portugal’s attack. Fernandes plays as the number 10 behind Gonçalo Ramos, with Rafael Leão and Pedro Neto running the flanks. He provides the creativity and is also on set pieces, which gives him more assist opportunities.
Norway will be shorthanded in the back. Heggem is suspended, and they haven’t recorded a clean sheet in 11 matches straight. Bruno averages an assist per game in this international window. That’s why backing him for another one at a 36% implied probability looks like the top value bet from our Portugal vs Norway predictions.
- Portugal vs Norway Bet 2: Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at odds of 2.80 with 1xBet
Norway deserved much more in Oslo
Norway were the better side in Oslo last week. They lost 2-1 but won the xG battle 2.52 to 1.04. Diogo Costa was the reason Portugal escaped with the three points, making nine saves on the night.
Norway’s performance deserves more respect than the scoreline gave it. They will be desperate for points in this one, especially after suffering back-to-back defeats. Martin Ødegaard and Erling Haaland remain legitimate threats in the offence, with Haaland scoring three and Ødegaard assisting three during this campaign.
Portugal have a comfortable cushion at the top of the group. They have already collected nine points, putting them in a strong position to reach the knockout stage. Jorge Jesus may also decide to rotate after three games in eight days and spare some of his key players. Backing the Norwegians to leave Porto with at least a point at a 45% implied probability looks like a fair shout.
- Portugal vs Norway Bet 3: Draw/Norway (Double chance) at odds of 2.20 with 1xBet