Our betting expert shares his predictions for this AFCON qualifier. South Africa should edge this one, especially on neutral turf.
Best bets for Eritrea vs South Africa
- 1x2 & Totals - South Africa & over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.48 on Parimatch
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 2.29 on Parimatch
- First half 1x2 - Draw at odds of 3.15 on Parimatch
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Eritrea 1-2 South Africa
- Goalscorers prediction: Eritrea: Ali Sulieman - South Africa: Oswin Appollis, Teboho Mokoena
Eritrea are participating in their first Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers in nearly two decades. The Red Sea Camels beat Eswatini in the preliminary rounds to secure their place in Group D. With 2027 AFCON co-hosts Kenya in the group, only one qualification spot is available.
Eritrea have never qualified for the AFCON, but their 1-1 draw with Kenya last time out will give them hope of changing that. The Red Sea Camels were three minutes away from a famous win before the equaliser went in. If Hesham Yakan’s men can upset South Africa on Wednesday, they’ll be in the mix for qualification.
South Africa have also undergone a managerial change. Pitso Mosimane returned to the helm after Hugo Broos stepped down. The Belgian delivered relative success for Bafana Bafana. This has added pressure on Mosimane in his second spell as the national team head coach. In his first game in charge, Mosimane’s men delivered three points at home to Guinea.
Bafana will have no illusions about their position in the group. They are the highest-ranked nation. Fans back home will expect them to finish first and qualify for the showpiece in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda next year. With qualification the target, South Africa will be looking to avoid any slip-up against Eritrea.
Probable lineups for Eritrea vs South Africa
Eritrea expected lineup: Sultan, Fors, Misignha, Embaye, Idris, Tekie, Girmai, Yohannes, Teklezgi, Gerezgiher, Sulieman
South Africa expected lineup: Williams, Sebelebele, Okon, Makhanya, Kabini, Sithole, Mokoena, Maseko, Mofokeng, Appollis, Rayners
No home advantage for Eritrea
Eritrea are in good form, having gone three games unbeaten. All three games have come under the leadership of former Egypt defender Yakan. He’ll aim to maintain that run and boost their chances of qualifying for AFCON for the first time.
South Africa have won two of their last three matches. Their only defeat in that run came against Canada in the World Cup round of 32. Bafana will go into this match filled with confidence, especially after their opening day victory. The match will take place in Cairo, but it is on neutral ground. South Africa should therefore face less hostility despite being the away team. Eritrea will also travel north to Egypt for this fixture.
Eritrea should still have plenty of support, but playing outside the country will reduce their home advantage. The 1996 AFCON champions should get over the line here, considering they’re ranked 130 places above their opponents.
- Eritrea vs South Africa Betting Tip 1: 1x2 & Totals - South Africa & over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.48 on Parimatch
Both sides can find the net
Another encouraging sign since Yakan took charge is that Eritrea have scored in all three games. They’ve netted five goals in three games, averaging 1.6 goals per game. Conceding just two in that run is encouraging, but keeping South Africa at bay will be tough.
The stats don’t paint the best picture for South Africa. Bafana Bafana have scored just four goals in their last four matches. However, the majority of those fixtures were against teams ranked far higher than them. Mosimane’s men have scored in each of their last three matches against African teams.
Both teams have scored in two of South Africa’s last four matches, while Eritrea have seen goals at both ends in their last two fixtures. Five of South Africa’s last seven games against African teams saw both sides score, making it a likely outcome on Wednesday.
- Eritrea vs South Africa Betting Tip 2: BTTS - Yes at odds of 2.29 on Parimatch
Half-time stalemate
Three of Eritrea’s last five matches saw the scores level at half-time, including their recent draw with Kenya. The Red Sea Camels went on to win two of those three games, showing they can improve after the break and find a way to get the result.
South Africa are heading into this fixture with two of their last three matches level at half-time. Playing away from home could have a slight impact on Bafana Bafana. Mosimane’s men may need time to settle into their new surroundings.
With this being the first meeting between the nations, both sides could be cautious in the opening period. African football has a knack for producing low-scoring affairs, with teams reluctant to take risks early on. As a result, there is plenty of value in backing the halftime draw here at this odds-against price.
- Eritrea vs South Africa Betting Tip 3: First half 1x2 - Draw at odds of 3.15 on Parimatch