Union Berlin lost 4-0 at Leverkusen in their only away game so far this season. A trip to the Allianz Arena is the last thing Die Eisernen need.
Best bets for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
- Bayern to win to nil at odds of 1.95 with Parimatch
- Under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with Parimatch
- Under 1.5 goals (1st half) at odds of 2.37 with Parimatch
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Bayern Munich 3-0 Union Berlin
- Goalscorers prediction: Bayern Munich: Kane, Musiala, Karl
Bayern Munich host Union Berlin at the Allianz Arena on Saturday. The game opens Matchday 4 of the Bundesliga.
Vincent Kompany's side have seven points from three games and are unbeaten. They put five past Stuttgart on the opening weekend before a goalless draw at Schalke.
Lennart Karl and Harry Kane then secured a 2-1 win at Elversberg, although Bayern had to work harder than anticipated to secure the three points. Bayern also beat Bodø/Glimt 5-0 in the Champions League last Thursday. Michael Olise, Luis Díaz and Kane are all Ballon d'Or nominees, making this a star-studded Bayern squad.
Union Berlin have just one point from three matches, and there are some serious concerns defensively speaking. A 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt was followed by successive heavy defeats.
They lost 4-0 at Bayer Leverkusen and 3-1 at home to Schalke. Tim Skarke grabbed their consolation in that game. Union have conceded 10 goals already and are still searching for a first league win.
Probable lineups for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
Bayern Munich expected lineup: Neuer, Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Brown, Kimmich, Pavlović, Olise, Musiala, Díaz, Kane
Union Berlin expected lineup: Rønnow, Juranović, Querfeld, Uduokhai, Rothe, Burcu, Khedira, Kemlein, Aebischer, Latte Lath, Jeong
Union often struggle to lay a glove on Bayern
Bayern have won with clean sheets in each of their last five home Bundesliga meetings with Union. The most recent was a 4-0 victory in March. Union have conceded 10 goals in three matches this season.
They have shipped four at Leverkusen and three at home to Schalke. Bayern have also kept two clean sheets in their last three outings.
Kompany's side will naturally aim to control possession for long spells. Union also failed to score at Leverkusen, who are one of Bayern’s closest challengers. The main concern is that Union did manage to score three times against Frankfurt.
Nevertheless, backing this outcome at a 51.3% implied probability still looks like the value bet from our Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin predictions.
- Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Bet 1: Bayern to win to nil at odds of 1.95 with Parimatch
Comfortable win rather than outright chaos
None of the last eight Bundesliga meetings at the Allianz Arena have produced five goals or more. Bayern have won the most recent one 4-0, which lands this bet comfortably.
Union are set up to defend deep and limit the damage. That approach usually keeps the scoreline respectable rather than embarrassing.
Although Union have lost 4-0 and 3-0 in their most recent visits, their match-ups rarely turn into routs at this ground. The obvious risk is Bayern's recent scoring. They put five past Stuttgart and five past Bodø/Glimt this season. However, they only managed two past Elversberg, and Schalke managed to hold them to a goalless draw a fortnight ago.
- Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Bet 2: Under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with Parimatch
Bayern to take their time to see off Die Eisernen
Bayern have been slow starters in the Bundesliga this season. It was goalless at half-time against Schalke earlier this month. Lennart Karl's 26th-minute opener was the only first-half goal at Elversberg.
The last meeting here in March saw Union hold out until the 43rd minute. Kompany left Kane and Olise on the bench at Schalke. If either of these players is benched again, this will back up our selection further.
Kompany's side can take time to break down compact defensive setups. Union are likely to sit deep from the first whistle. The obvious risk is Bayern's ability to score several goals in quick succession. Nevertheless, it’s worth a play at an odds-against implied probability of just 42.19%.
- Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Bet 3: Under 1.5 goals (1st half) at odds of 2.37 with Parimatch