Stade Brest stunned French football in 2023/24 to clinch a top-four finish in Ligue 1. It’s comfortably Les Pirates’ highest ever league placing. Under manager Eric Roy and sporting director Gregory Lorenzi, their strategy of combining youth and experience and a tight-knit squad paid dividends.
The gauntlet has been thrown down to Roy and co. to emulate last season’s feat in 2024/25, while featuring in the UEFA Champions League, the first time the club has qualified for any major European competition in their history.
- Romain Del Castillo’s 101 progressive carries must be replicated in 24/25
- Les Pirates outperformed their xG and xGA by 5 goals apiece in 23/24
- Replacing Steve Mounie’s 11.00 npxG + xAG and retaining Satriano’s 9.0 npxG + xAG is key
| Ligue 1 Outright Markets | Stade Brest Odds |
|---|---|
| Title Winner | 67.00 |
| Title Winner (Without PSG) | 21.00 |
| Top 4 Finish | 10.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Can Les Pirates keep their eyes on the Ligue 1 prize?
Currently, Stade Brest are priced at 10.00 with 1xBet to secure back-to-back top-four finishes in Ligue 1. Looking at the market, this suggests 1xBet feel ninth place is their most likely position in 2024/25.
Roy used just 22 players in the 2023/24 season, preferring team chemistry over squad rotation. This becomes a bigger challenge with a UEFA Champions League – and potentially a Europa League – campaign to contend with alongside their domestic season.
The form of their main creative outlet, Romain Del Castillo, will be vital in both competitions. The 28-year-old registered 101 progressive carries last term. Only eight players in Ligue 1 posted more than him. He built on an encouraging 2022/23 to shine further in 2023/24, with eight goals and eight assists. Keeping the 28-year-old fit and firing will be a huge priority for Roy.
The loss of target man striker Steve Mounie to Augsburg will be heavily felt. He contributed 11.00 non-penalty xG and xAG last term. The loan capture of Ludovic Ajorque from Mainz feels like a decent like-for-like replacement, averaging one goal in three games for Strasbourg between 2018-2023. Eric Roy is also desperate to retain the Uruguayan forward, Martin Satriano, who shone on loan from Inter.
Looking at Brest’s xG (48.3) and xAG (39.2) last term, they managed to outperform both metrics by five goals. It takes a clinical forward line and good fortune at the back to maintain such statistics.
It's clear there are several variables which could make or break Brest’s 2024/25 season. This explains their lengthier 10.00 odds for a top-four finish.
Who Are the Teams Bidding to Become the ‘Next Brest’ in 2024/25?
Despite finishing tenth and 15 points behind Les Pirates last season, Stade Rennes are currently priced much shorter than Brest (4.00) to finish in the top four. The recent sales of Enzo Le Fee, Martin Terrier and Jeanuel Belocian have allowed Les Rennais to significantly strengthen their squad. The likes of Albert Gronbaek, Glen Kamara and Leo Ostigard have put pen to paper in recent weeks.
As a relative giant of French football, Marseille may never be a dark horse like Brest, but they underachieved massively in 23/24. An eighth-place finish last term was derisory in the eyes of their expectant fans. However, they are priced as short as 1.44 for a top-four finish this time around.
Marseille’s expected improvement is likely founded upon the ambitious signings of Mason Greenwood and Ismael Kone from Manchester United and Watford. Meanwhile, experienced Danish midfielder, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, is a savvy loan pick-up from Tottenham.