Mourinho’s strong relationship with Vinicius Junior could help the winger improve on last season’s numbers.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| La Liga most assists | Vinicius Junior | 15.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Backing a rejuvenated Vini Jr
Real Madrid have removed a major layer of uncertainty around the future of Vinicius Junior by tying him down until 2032. While the new deal ends a major summer transfer saga, keeping Vini Jr is particularly important for season-long betting markets.
He’s been at the club since he was 18 back in 2018 and has won 14 major trophies, including two Champions League titles. Vini has also collected several individual awards over the years, such as the Best Men's Player award in 2024, handed out by football’s world governing body. Losing a player of this calibre, whether for a hefty fee or for free, would’ve significantly weakened Los Blancos.
He finished the last La Liga campaign with 16 goals and six assists in 36 appearances. Therefore, a stronger betting argument comes from his consistency rather than the contract extension itself.
The new deal
Vinicius Junior agreed to a new six-year contract at the Bernabeu earlier this month, bringing an end to the immediate doubt around his long-term future.
Premier League champions Arsenal had been monitoring the situation while talks dragged on, but that is now less relevant for bettors. Real Madrid can now plan for the season, with one of their main attacking players fully committed to the cause.
New club boss Jose Mourinho is said to have played a big role in the eventual agreement, as he shares a great relationship with the player. Vinicius will remain one of the central figures in this Los Blancos side.
The Spanish giants strengthened their attack with the signing of Yan Diomande. With Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, and Vini Jr, they look like a formidable unit.
Vini’s numbers from last season suggest he’s likely to be heavily involved once again. He played 36 La Liga games and scored 16 goals with six assists. Last season was his most productive since the 2021/22 season.
Despite the ongoing contract talks, the Brazilian remained fully committed to the team. With uncertainty now behind him, Vini could take his returns to the next level this season.
More goals for Vini
The value angle with Real Madrid’s winger is backing him to score 15 or more league goals. He already cleared that mark with 16 goals last season, level with Barcelona’s wonderkid Lamine Yamal. Vini took 100 shots in La Liga, with 46 of them on target.
His 1.47 shots on target per 90 was identical to Yamal’s figure last season. The forward also posted 12.42 xG (expected goals) and averaged 0.44 goals per game. With that number of attempts in his locker, Vini is bound to get scoring chances over a full campaign.
The 'most assists' market makes more sense as a higher-priced alternative than the goals market. Vinicius registered five fewer assists than league leader Yamal, although Real Madrid’s reinforcements in other areas could work in his favour.
Bernardo Silva, Ibrahima Konate, Marc Cucurella and Denzel Dumfries have been brought in to bolster the defence and midfield. This should allow Vini to focus primarily on operating in the final third.
It’s worth noting that he recorded 10 assists in the 2024/25 season, just three behind Yamal. Considering the players around him and their possession and attacking abilities, the assists route looks less straightforward than the goals option.
The evidence points towards backing Vinicius to score 15 or more La Liga goals this season. However, it is worth monitoring the price ahead of Real Madrid’s opening league fixture.