Arsenal toppled the established order. Manchester City face life without Guardiola. The new Premier League season offers more than just a title race.
| 2026/27 Premier League | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal to win the league | 2.50 |
| Hull City to finish bottom | 2.50 |
| Leeds United to get relegated | 6.50 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A changing of the guard
The 2025/26 Premier League campaign broke a 22‑year drought. Arsenal are champions at last, finishing on 85 points, seven ahead of Manchester City. Mikel Arteta’s side have beaten the odds after three consecutive runner‑up finishes.
City pushed them all the way, but Guardiola’s final campaign ended with the FA Cup and League Cup rather than the title.
The English top-flight landscape has shifted dramatically. Pep Guardiola has departed City, ending a decade of dominance. Incoming manager Enzo Maresca faces the gigantic task of replacing a titan.
Manchester United completed a stunning turnaround under Michael Carrick, climbing from mid‑table to a third-place finish. They, however, currently lack the depth to sustain a title challenge.
Liverpool endured a season of collapse, finishing fifth with 12 defeats and no silverware. Chelsea are in complete disarray. After sacking Maresca and then Liam Rosenior, the Blues slumped to a dismal 52‑point finish, missing out on Europe altogether.
Sunderland wrote a fairy tale. Promoted after eight years via the play‑offs, they finished seventh and qualified for the Europa League. This marks a remarkable four‑year rise from League One to Europe. Their success will not be easily repeated by this season’s promoted trio.
There is massive uncertainty swirling around the traditional powers. The outright markets have several value selections worth examining before the World Cup and until the transfer window closes.
Back-to-back titles for the first time in the Premier League era?
Arsenal are the champions and clear leaders, even if the odds reflect a chasing pack.
Mikel Arteta’s squad have been strengthened by major signings. The additions of Martin Zubimendi, Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres have filled the gaps that were missing in previous terms.
Crucially, their biggest rival is in transition. Manchester City will be without Pep Guardiola for the first time in a decade. The arrival of Enzo Maresca represents a significant gamble. The departure of a club icon after 20 trophies leaves a void that cannot be filled overnight.
Liverpool are a shadow of a team they once were. Despite securing Champions League football, Arne Slot’s second season was a disaster. The circumstances around Mohamed Salah’s departure are also unfortunate.
Manchester United found form under Carrick. However, with their current squad depth, a title push is perhaps far-fetched.
Among top clubs, Chelsea remain in disarray. Their final‑day 2-1 defeat to Sunderland underlined deep‑rooted problems. New manager Xabi Alonso needs time to untangle Stamford Bridge’s troubles. A title challenge is a long shot.
Arsenal’s biggest threat remains a City side with immense quality. Yet, the odds are generous for a settled champion facing a rival in disarray. The market has not fully priced in the scale of Guardiola’s departure.
Hull bound for Championship U-turn?
The promoted teams this season – Hull City, Ipswich Town and Coventry City – are three of the weakest on paper in years. While Sunderland showed what is possible with smart recruitment and on-field unity, Hull City arrive under a dark cloud.
The Tigers are the Premier League’s accidental promotion story. They reached the top flight only because Southampton were expelled from the play‑offs for the Spygate scandal.
Hull City snuck into the final and scraped past Middlesbrough at Wembley thanks to Ollie McBernie's 95th-minute winner.
However, Sergej Jakirovic’s side have shown little to suggest they can cope with the demands of the top flight. Their budget is limited, and a tough run of early fixtures lies ahead.
Ipswich and Coventry are also bound to struggle. However, Hull City, who finished sixth in the Championship, 22 points off champions Coventry, appear to have the least momentum. They now face a summer of trying to recruit top quality players on a limited budget.
Can Leeds defy the odds and secure survival?
Leeds United exceeded expectations in the 2025/26 season. Daniel Farke’s side avoided relegation with three games to spare, a remarkable achievement for a club tipped to go down. They also reached an FA Cup semi‑final for the first time in 39 years.
However, the underlying reality is less positive. Like their rivals, Leeds lack the depth required for a sustained Premier League stay. They were fortunate their best players remained fit for most of the campaign. In a league where injuries and fatigue wreck seasons, Leeds are walking a fine line.
Farke’s future is uncertain. The summer transfer window will test their resolve. They must retain their stars while also adding quality. History suggests that clubs in their position often struggle to achieve both.
Their relegation odds imply just a 15% chance. Given the fragility of their squad and the unpredictable nature of the second‑season slump, that price looks very generous.
If one of the promoted clubs reinforces well, Leeds could easily be dragged into the drop zone battle.