Ruben Amorim’s side are still a work in progress. Yet, victory over Inter sent a message to the rest of Serie A that they should be taken seriously. Does the derby win make Milan Scudetto betting worth a second look?
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| Serie A - To win outright | AC Milan | 11.00 |
| Serie A - To win outright without Inter Milan | AC Milan | 5.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Derby victory puts Milan back in the Scudetto conversation
AC Milan handed the reigning Serie A champions their first league defeat of the campaign when they beat Inter Milan 3-1 last weekend. It wasn’t just a routine win, as it was Milan’s fourth consecutive triumph against their city rivals in all competitions. That points to a slight dominance of this fixture by the red half in recent times rather than an anomaly.
The win came at a crucial point too. Defeat would’ve seen the Rossoneri slip back to 10 points behind the Nerazzurri. Instead, they’ve reduced that gap to just four points, while they’re seven points away from surprise leaders, Lazio.
There are no guarantees. However, the derby triumph could provide the momentum Milan need to challenge for the Scudetto, much like it did for Stefano Pioli’s team in 2021/22. They eventually finished two points ahead of Inter, which made that derby victory a decisive moment in their title-winning campaign.
The result in itself is positive and ensures Milan aren’t left out of the conversation for the title. Picking them should be viewed as an outside chance rather than a sure bet, especially because Ruben Amorim’s side are still finding their feet. Nevertheless, with just one defeat in their first 10 matches, Milan have shown enough to suggest they should not be dismissed.
Milan’s derby dominance could fuel their title ambitions
AC Milan’s latest triumph over Inter extended their unbeaten run against their city rivals to eight matches, dating back to September 2024.
The Rossoneri have won six of those encounters, highlighting their recent superiority in the fixture. On paper, the Nerazzurri generally boast a stronger squad and have enjoyed better league positions. Yet, they have struggled to translate that advantage into derby victories.
Although Amorim’s project is still taking shape, there are signs of progress. Milan have experienced some setbacks, including against Bologna and Bournemouth, but a structure is starting to emerge. Amorim has built his team around key personnel, including Adrien Rabiot, Luka Modric, and Christian Pulisic.
This derby victory could be just what Milan need to move to the next level under Amorim. If Milan can compete until Christmas and the turn of the year, their title push could be a reality.
Gerry Cardinale might see the potential for winning the Scudetto and invest in January. A few well-chosen additions could provide the extra quality and depth Milan need to turn their title ambitions into reality.
The numbers behind Milan’s case for a Scudetto bet
Looking back at the derby, Milan showed considerable defensive discipline to protect their 3-1 advantage. The Diavolo had to defend the entire second half, withstanding a barrage of Inter attacks.
Inter had 10 shots to Milan’s two in the second half, along with an xG (expected goals) of 0.75 compared to the Rossoneri’s 0.05.
Milan’s defensive organisation was reminiscent of the approach associated with Massimiliano Allegri. He was the last manager to beat Inter in Serie A before last weekend’s encounter. Milan’s overall defending numbers aren’t bad either, as they conceded an xGA (expected goals against) of 13.15, ranking them seventh in Serie A. Furthermore, only Inter (35) and Juventus (26) have allowed fewer than Milan’s 43 opposition shots.
They’ve been decent at the opposite end of the pitch as well, recording an xG of 17.75, although they’ve scored 21 goals. Both stats place Amorim’s men fifth in the division.
While they haven’t taken many shots on goal, their conversion rate is excellent. Milan have a 17.5% shot conversion rate, which is the best in Serie A, while their city rivals are at 11.82%.
Amorim has several options at his disposal, from Rabiot’s versatility and Cisse’s development to Moreira’s attacking flair and the experience of Pulisic and Modric. With so many names still missing from the line-up, it comes back to the initial premise: the AC Milan squad have massive room for growth.
Goncalo Ramos is one player who could offer much more in the coming months. The Portuguese striker has managed just two goals in 10 Serie A appearances this season, but his relatively slow start is not yet a major concern.
Milan have already had seven different goalscorers, with Rabiot currently leading that group.
Ramos was unable to get on the scoresheet in the derby, despite Milan producing an impressive team performance.
Ramos managed to score in three of Portugal’s recent four Nations League matches. If Milan create more chances for Ramos and he becomes more clinical, their Scudetto hopes will receive a significant boost.
His current return is not a pressing issue, however, as Milan have been particularly clinical in front of goal. In their last two matches, 71% of their shots on target have resulted in goals, highlighting their impressive finishing.
Milan’s potential for further improvement makes them an interesting watchlist option for Scudetto betting. Milan are worth following rather than backing blindly at any price in either the outright or the ‘winner without Inter’ market.