Freiburg currently average 3 goals scored per game, but they aren’t just free-scoring. They’ve conceded just 3.7 xG, the league’s 2nd best xGA.
| Freiburg vs Schalke 04 betting markets | Odds |
| Freiburg to win | 1.60 |
| Freiburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.55 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Julian Schuster’s side are forcing the Bundesliga to take notice
Freiburg have made an impressive start to the 2026/27 Bundesliga. Schuster’s team seem well capable of building on their 7th-placed finish last term.
Defensively, they were anything but watertight last season. They shipped 57 goals and ended the campaign on a negative goal difference, despite qualifying for the Conference League.
Since the turn of the new season, Freiburg have stormed to successive home wins, demolishing Werder Bremen and Mönchengladbach 4-1 and 5-0, respectively. They also secured a narrow 1-0 win at Paderborn, followed by an entertaining 2-2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt.
The biggest improvement has come in their goal difference. After 4 games, it’s currently +9, with 12 goals and only 3 conceded. That’s more than enough to justify the early noise around the Breisgau-Brasilianer.
Schuster, who spent almost the entirety of his 13-year professional playing career as a Freiburg player, is trying hard to keep his players grounded. After all, just a tenth of the season has elapsed.
Nevertheless, the signs are encouraging. Freiburg could be genuine contenders for Champions League qualification for the first time in the club’s history.
The 2-2 draw in Frankfurt was an important mental hurdle for Schuster’s side to overcome. They came from behind to claim a point on two occasions. Schuster noted the “very positive” response to adversity during his post-match press duties.
It all suggests that this start to 2026/27 hasn’t just been about dominating weaker opponents and piling up goals on home turf.
Freiburg’s numbers back up their Bundesliga position
Freiburg’s xG data mirrors their current Bundesliga position. According to FotMob, they’ve racked up 9.3 xG in 4 games. This puts them 3rd in the Bundesliga’s live and xG tables.
They are joint-second in the xGA table too (3.7). This suggests that their actual goals-against tally (3) is a genuine reflection of how they’ve defended as a team.
Schuster’s side allow opponents very few clear-cut opportunities. They currently rank 17th in FotMob’s saves per 90 table, with Mio Backhaus making just 1.5 stops per 90 at present.
By contrast, Augsburg have managed to assume 4th place in the Bundesliga, despite their keeper averaging 5.3 saves per 90.
That’s the 3rd-highest figure in the division and suggests their current league position might not be as sustainable as Freiburg’s. Their xGA data reveals Augsburg should have conceded 9.7 goals to their actual tally of 6.
Freiburg’s attacking output has been steady too. Their shots on target per match metric is the 3rd-highest in the league (6.5).
Did You Know? Freiburg’s Igor Matanovic is proving a handful for most Bundesliga defences to cope with aerially. He wins more aerial duels than 94% of the league’s strikers. Matanovic scored a header in Freiburg’s 5-0 win over Mönchengladbach. Instead of backing him to score first or at any time against Schalke, consider the headed-goal market. The implied probability is just 16.67%.
Despite Schuster suffering the loss of key players like Johan Manzambi and Noah Atubolu in the summer, he wasn’t forced to rebuild his entire squad.
Mio Backhaus has provided greater stability in goal, while Yannik Engelhardt, Keisuke Goto and Rihito Yamamoto have all fitted in seamlessly. All three have integrated well, fitting comfortably into Freiburg’s refreshed squad.
How to bet on Freiburg’s early season momentum
From a betting perspective, it’s hard to ignore Freiburg’s impressive start in front of their own supporters. Back-to-back home wins, 9 goals scored and just 1 conceded is a very solid start.
Schuster hopes the international break hasn’t stifled their growing momentum.
After the three-week break, they return to home soil to face 11th-placed Schalke 04. The visitors have just 5 points and have conceded 4 goals in their first 2 away games this term. Both of those away trips also cleared the Over 2.5 Goals line.
Their poor defensive structure away from Gelsenkirchen, coupled with their dire head-to-head form with Freiburg, gives us confidence in another home win.
Schalke are winless in their last 8 Bundesliga games with Freiburg. They haven’t defeated the Breisgau-Brasilianer since 2018. Freiburg have won their last five league meetings.
Aside from our interest in Freiburg in the Match Odds market, we also like the Team Goals angle. Freiburg average 4.50 goals per home game. Yet, we can back 1.5+ goals for them against Schalke at a 64.52% implied probability, which looks like a sound play.
Freiburg’s dominant recent head-to-head record with Schalke certainly helps build a positive picture for backers. When you pair it with what Schuster’s men are producing right now, it’s clear Schalke will be in for a difficult afternoon.
Where’s the value in the player markets? Yuito Suzuki has made an excellent start to the 2026/27 campaign. The Japanese playmaker averages 1.11 goals per 90 and 2 successful dribbles per 90. He has a 100% strike rate for goal contributions (4 in 4 games). Yet, we can back him to score or assist against Schalke at a modest 38.10% implied probability.
A word of warning: If you’re thinking of backing Freiburg in the Bundesliga’s outright markets, it could be good to wait for a little while. After the international break, Freiburg face Leverkusen and Bayern Munich back-to-back following the Schalke 04 game. The data suggests their recent results are no accident. Nevertheless, it might be best to sit and see how they fare against Germany’s elite before betting on a top-four finish.