A new head coach in Fabio Grosso has stepped in, and new personnel have come in through the Fiorentina door. This could turn their fortunes around.
| Roma vs Fiorentina | Odds |
| Fiorentina/Draw Double Chance | 2.40 |
| Fiorentina +1 Asian Handicap | 2.10 |
| Fiorentina win | 5.60 |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why Fiorentina could surprise Serie A
Fiorentina’s 2025/26 campaign wasn’t a memorable one. They finished 15th in Serie A under the guidance of Paulo Vanoli, who produced a mixed bag of league results. The Viola averaged just 1.39 points per game last term. They were only eight points in front of the relegation zone.
They’ve since undergone a rebuild, replacing the head coach with Fabio Grosso. He’s already made some shrewd signings in the transfer market and is driving the club’s reset. The market is underestimating Fiorentina’s off-field efforts and hasn’t looked into their underlying data from last season.
Grosso is a former World Cup winner with Italy, and he’s overseen two promotions from Serie B to Serie A in his managerial career. He guided Sassuolo to the second division title and led them to an 11th-place finish in their first season back in Serie A last term.
There’s enough to suggest that Fiorentina could exceed expectations in Italy, especially if they start the campaign positively. Their first test will come against Roma on the opening weekend. Navigating that fixture successfully will hold them in good stead going forward.
Fiorentina’s reset begins with smart recruitment
Last season’s return was undeniably poor, with the Viola scoring 41 goals, conceding 50, and ending with a negative goal difference. Those numbers across a full league campaign hardly make for a profile the market is eager to trust. Yet, the standout factor this term is new head coach Fabio Grosso, who is the clear starting point for this Fiorentina reset.
Their summer business has been smart so far, as Fiorentina appear to have targeted their central spine rather than simply adding players. Radu Dragusin and Alex Jimenez offer Grosso more defensive options. Meanwhile, Christ Inao Oulai, Arthur Atta, and Marco Brescianini strengthen the midfield.
Viery’s arrival from Gremio adds another option at centre-back. In addition, Robin Gosens’ loan move to Schalke has contributed to a significant reshaping of the squad.
Dragusin and Jimenez bring invaluable Premier League experience to the squad, but Grosso has also bolstered his attack. Giovanni Fabbian joined the Viola from Bologna in the hope of awakening forward Roberto Piccoli. Piccoli scored just four goals in 32 Serie A matches last term.
Fabbian’s minutes were limited last season; he played only 14 games for Bologna. He still took 14 shots in that run. Transfer activity doesn’t automatically equal improvement. Still, Fiorentina needed a solid base, especially through the spine, and this rebuild gives Grosso the chance to create one.
Fiorentina’s attack deserves another look
Fiorentina’s home form needs a lot of improvement. They won just four of 19 matches at their own ground last term. That win percentage of 21% is exactly why the value comes in backing them, especially in the early parts of the season. Their underlying data suggests they should perform better than last term.
On the goals front, the Viola generated an xG of 52.75, which was ranked seventh in Serie A and above runners-up Napoli. It suggests they created chances - 489 shots to be exact but their finishing let them down, with 131 on target. A possible explanation is that Piccoli was unable to make the most of those opportunities.
He scored four league goals from 6.52 xG in 2025/26 after posting 10 goals from 13.31 xG the previous season. It doesn’t prove that Fiorentina will automatically surge up the table. However, it suggests that last season’s scoring return was harsher than their chance creation deserved.
The rebuild could bring defensive stability, giving the forwards a better platform to work with. Grosso can also focus on one of Fiorentina’s strengths from last season, where their direct attacks produced five goals in total. They ranked fifth in that regard, better than Inter Milan, Juventus, Napoli and their upcoming opponents, Roma.
The case for Fiorentina as an upset pick
Fiorentina’s Serie A campaign starts with a visit to Roma’s Stadio Olimpico on the opening weekend. Bookmakers have already suggested that the hosts are strong favourites for the win. They expect a draw to be more likely than a Viola victory, reflecting Fiorentina’s current price.
While Roma’s performances last season justify their status as favourites, their xG was 54.94, only 2.19 better than Fiorentina’s xG. Finishing third in Serie A naturally brings the expectation that Roma should overcome a side that ended the season in 15th. Roma kept clean sheets in 58% of their home games and ended the season with a five-match winning run. However, that only increases the appeal of backing Fiorentina to cause an upset.
Roma remain the more likely winners, and Fiorentina’s rebuild may need time. The visitors offer intrigue because their price reflects the old Fiorentina more than the possibility of a better-balanced one under Grosso.
Fiorentina should be viewed as outsiders rather than likely winners. If their rebuilt central spine settles quickly, they could be worth backing to spring a surprise in Rome. Roma’s stronger foundation and recent form mean this remains a difficult task, but that is exactly what creates the potential appeal.