| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A top goalscorer | Donyell Malen | 3.40 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Malen’s hat-trick is impossible to ignore
Donyell Malen has put himself in the spotlight for Serie A’s Golden Boot after the opening weekend. The Dutchman struck three goals in Roma’s Monday night date with Fiorentina at the Stadio Olimpico. It turns out that moving to Italy has done wonders. His career had begun to stall during his time at Aston Villa.
He linked up with Roma in January last year and struck 14 goals in 18 league appearances while on loan. It’s no surprise that Gian Piero Gasperini wanted him to be a permanent fixture in a productive attacking setup. After the first gameweek, Malen leads the scoring charts, which is why it’s worth capitalising on his fair price while it lasts.
Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez, Juventus’ Randal Kolo Muani, and AC Milan’s Goncalo Ramos all failed to register a goal in the opening weekend. The Dutchman finished last season’s Golden Boot race as a runner-up to Martinez. Yet, he scored just three fewer goals than the Argentine in 12 fewer appearances.
First-game heroics
Malen’s hat-trick against Fiorentina came in a match that Roma dominated from the first whistle. The performance behind the scoreline matters, especially in the Serie A top goalscorer market. Roma’s 61% ball possession, 17 shots with eight on target, and an xG (expected goals) of 3.07 showed their dominance against a formidable opponent.
Limiting the visitors to 0.35 xG and no big chances underlines just how much control the hosts had throughout the match. Understandably, one matchday doesn’t decide a season-long race, but Malen has made a case for himself with his performance.
The forward dominated the stats for total shots (5), shots on target (3), xG of 1.48, touches in the opposition box (12), and successful dribbles (75%). Those numbers point to a player who has adapted to life in Serie A.
Roma were able to take Malen off after 68 minutes once the result was secured, with Santiago Castro replacing him. That is another encouraging sign. The goals came early within a well-functioning attack without needing the full 90 minutes to build up his numbers.
Malen’s central role could be the key
Malen struggled to establish a consistent role elsewhere, including during his time at Aston Villa. Even with the Netherlands at the World Cup, he was relegated to the right flank. However, Gasperini appears to have found the role that brings out the best in him.
With Paulo Dybala operating as the left attacking midfielder and Matias Soulé on the right, Malen now has a clear central role. That change could be crucial to his scoring potential, as he is receiving a different type of chance than he did when starting from wider positions.
Rather than starting wide and arriving late, he is now the focal point of attacks. Dybala and Soulé are behind him looking for runs into the middle. The three assists from Dybala on Monday night were an encouraging early sign of that relationship.
In the seven matches they’ve played together so far, including those from last season, Malen has scored 7 goals, six of which were assisted by Dybala. Their developing partnership could prove vital as Gasperini aims to end Inter’s grip on the Scudetto.
The Giallorossi clearly function better with Malen leading the line. Before he arrived, Roma had scored 22 league goals. After his loan move, they racked up 37 goals. That’s an average of 2.06 goals per game with him in the team as opposed to 1.10 before he joined.
This season’s Golden Boot race
The cleanest comparison is Lautaro Martinez, who won the 2025/26 Serie A Golden Boot race with 17 goals. Malen finished on 14 goals, despite arriving mid-season. He averaged 0.78 goals per game and scored once every 115 minutes, compared with Martinez’s 0.57 goals per game and one every 159 minutes.
Last season, Serie A produced just 922 goals, the lowest total since the league expanded to 20 teams. That’s an average of 2.43 goals per game, the worst across Europe’s top five leagues. The 2026/27 Serie A Matchday 1 saw only 24 goals scored. That’s why Malen, with already three goals to his name, is a smart bet for top goalscorer at current odds.
In 2023/24, Lautaro Martinez won the Golden Boot with 24 goals, but faced little competition for his place in Inter’s attack. Christian Chivu, who is also focused on the Champions League, will likely rotate Martinez with Thuram, Bonny, and Esposito.
Malen’s case for winning isn’t just based on Monday night, but on his returns since January last year. He has scored 17 goals in 19 Serie A matches, surpassing Gabriel Batistuta's previous Roma record of 15 goals.
Marco van Basten remains the last Dutchman to win the Serie A Golden Boot. He claimed the award with AC Milan in 1989/90 and 1991/92. If Malen can maintain his current form, he could become the next Dutch player to finish top of the scoring charts.
What could derail Malen’s Golden Boot bid
The price around Malen to finish as the division's top scorer for the season has already shifted after the opening round of fixtures. The stronger argument is not that the market has overlooked him, but that he remains available at an appealing early-season price.
It remains to be seen if Gasperini will use him sparingly, considering they’ve got the Champions League to come.
Castro is a central alternative, while Dybala and Rodrigo Mora give Gasperini room to manage the attacking unit over a long season. Limited minutes for the Dutchman could affect his ability to stay in front of his challengers.
Dybala’s role is an important part of the evidence, particularly after his three assists against Fiorentina. Roma have other routes to goal, but Malen’s case is strongest if that supply line stays intact. Additionally, he needs to continue starting as the regular centre-forward rather than drifting back into a wider brief.
Malen looks like a sensible early Serie A top goalscorer bet. This is an early-season value call rather than a definitive prediction. The two things to monitor are Malen’s price and whether Gasperini continues to use him as the main striker.