Saturday’s 2-1 win to Napoli showed that Cesc Fabregas’ Como can challenge Italy’s established sides and compete at Champions League level.
| 2026/27 Como outright betting markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Como to win Serie A | 21.00 |
| Como to win Serie A without Inter | 10.00 |
| Como Top 4 finish | 2.50 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A statement win that went beyond the scoreline
This was no lucky win. Martin Baturina opened the scoring in the 17th minute from an Assane Diao assist. Rasmus Højlund levelled for Napoli on 30 minutes. Anastasios Douvikas restored the lead four minutes later for his second goal in as many games.
The response to Napoli’s equaliser tells you plenty about Como. They continued to dictate the game rather than sitting deep and protecting the scoreline.
The numbers are emphatic. Como finished with 58% possession, 21 shots to 13 and six shots on target to two. They also won seven corners to Napoli’s two and completed 555 passes to Napoli's 385.
The pattern on the pitch matched the data. Como threatened in the 5th, 14th and 15th minutes before scoring. Their pressing produced the turnover that led to the winner. That supports the argument that their playing style is sustainable.
Fàbregas then showed the other side of his coaching. Facing heat, tired legs and a chasing Napoli, he switched to a back-three before locking things down in a compact 5-4-1. Winning at the Maradona is difficult enough, but Como showed they could dominate the game and then defend their lead when it mattered.
Fàbregas has built a squad for this
The Napoli display did not come from nowhere. Como finished fourth last season and qualified for the Champions League for the first time. They scored 65 goals, second only to Inter's 89. They conceded just 29, fewer than anyone else in Serie A.
They also kept a division-high 19 clean sheets while averaging more possession than any other side. Those numbers point to a team built around control rather than one enjoying a temporary run of form. Fàbregas has taken this club from Serie B to Europe's top table in three seasons.
The club’s hierarchy backed Fàbregas with a major investment in the summer. Trevoh Chalobah, Yan Couto, Samuele Ricci, Luis Milla and Mattia Liberali all arrived before deadline day. Chelsea goalkeeper Robert Sánchez followed. Then came the headline signing.
Moise Kean joined from Fiorentina on 1 September in a package worth around €40m. Fàbregas had openly warned that Douvikas could not carry Serie A, the Coppa Italia and the Champions League alone. That gap has now been closed with an Italy international entering his prime.
The workload remains the obvious risk. Como host Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester United in the UCL league phase and travel to Barcelona. Two encouraging early-season Serie A performances against Udinese and Napoli prove very little on their own.
The safer way to back the Como story
Inter remain favourites, and Como are still genuine outsiders. The outright market gives them around a 5% chance of winning the title. That is a low bar for a side that just dominated at the Maradona.
The outright winner without Inter market is the more interesting middle ground. A roughly 10% chance of finishing as the best team outside Inter looks stingy. Como have already beaten Napoli away. Juventus and Milan have both restructured heavily again this summer.
The cleanest route is still top four. The market implies a 36% to 40% chance of Champions League qualification. That appears below fair value for a side that look stronger than the one that finished fourth last season. Como do not need to finish above every Italian heavyweight to land the bet.
They travel to Genoa on Friday for what looks like an easier fixture than most rivals face. Matchday 3 sees Inter against Napoli, Juventus against Milan and Roma against Atalanta. A Como win in Liguria would push both implied probabilities higher.
There is a clear counterargument. One standout away win and a 1-1 draw at Udinese make a persuasive case, not a conclusive one.
The market looks too cautious on all three fronts. A 5% title chance undersells Como, and a 40% chance of UCL qualification undersells them further.
The second option follows the same logic with considerably less risk. That makes it arguably the smarter play until we see how they handle Champions League midweeks.