PSG are the reigning UCL champions again, having beaten Arsenal in a penalty shootout in the final. Yet, the odds suggest it’ll be tougher this year.
| 2026/27 Champions League winner betting market | Odds |
|---|---|
| PSG | 6.50 |
| Arsenal | 7.00 |
| Barcelona | 6.50 |
| Bayern Munich | 7.00 |
| Real Madrid | 7.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
PSG
Luis Enrique's side retained the trophy in Budapest, beating Arsenal on penalties after a 1-1 draw. They won 11 of 17 Champions League matches last season and scored 49 goals. That is the highest total of the five contenders here.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was named Player of the Season, with 10 goals and six assists. Ferran Torres has since arrived, fresh from scoring the World Cup final winner for Spain.
The market gives them a 16.7% chance. That is short. Only Real Madrid, Ajax and Bayern have ever won three in a row. PSG also lost Bradley Barcola to Liverpool this summer.
In the league phase, Barcelona visit the Parc des Princes, and PSG travel to Manchester City. Those two fixtures will tell you plenty. Credible favourites, but certainly short enough to oppose based on their stuttering early-season domestic results.
Arsenal
Arsenal have the most convincing case in the field. They became the first team to win all eight league phase games and then reached last season’s final without losing a match.
The Gunners’ defensive record was impeccable in the 2025/26 UCL. They conceded only four goals in eight league phase matches and kept five clean sheets. Also, they ranked top in the league phase xG standings, posting 20.4. Arsenal hugely outperformed their xGA of 13.5, conceding just 7 goals in the entire competition.
Bruno Guimarães adds control to a squad that also won last season’s Premier League. Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund visit north London, with trips to Bayern, Napoli, Real Betis and Slavia Prague.
A 14.3% implied chance is too low given that profile. Arsenal are the pick if their price remains close to PSG’s.
Barcelona
Barcelona still have the strongest attack in this group. They scored 22 goals in eight league phase games last season and 32 in 12 matches overall. Lamine Yamal contributed six goals and four assists at the age of 18.
The flaw is familiar. Hansi Flick's high line leaves space behind against elite counter-attacking sides. That is exactly how Atlético Madrid eliminated them in last season’s quarter-finals.
Bringing in Rodri could help tighten things up defensively. The 2024 Ballon d'Or winner arrives from Manchester City with a Champions League final win and a World Cup on his record. His ability to protect the defence could change the picture.
Manchester City and Aston Villa come to the Camp Nou, while PSG await in the away fixture. A 14.3% chance appeals only if you trust the new-found control.
Bayern Munich
Bayern top the club coefficient rankings and bring the heaviest firepower. They scored 43 goals in 14 Champions League matches last season and won 11 of them. They also posted the competition's highest xG at 38.1.
Harry Kane has 33 goals in 38 Champions League appearances for the club. Bayern also set a Bundesliga record, with 122 goals domestically. Ismaël Saibari has joined from PSV to add to that attack.
The concern is at the other end. Vincent Kompany's approach produced a 5-4 semi-final first-leg defeat in Paris. Bayern went out by a single goal across the tie.
Arsenal visit Munich, while Atlético Madrid await on the road. At a 14.3% chance, Bayern need to show more control before the price properly appeals.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid are marginally longer than the rest of the group. However, it's clear the market still respects the talent - and the new manager. Jose Mourinho returns to the Bernabeu for a second spell in charge.
The 2025/26 UCL was mixed by their standards. They won nine of 14 Champions League matches, lost five and conceded 20 goals.
Bayern knocked them out in the quarter-finals. Madrid ended a trophyless season, having used both Xabi Alonso and Álvaro Arbeloa in the dugout.
Beyond Mourinho’s arrival, the squad have also added Marc Cucurella and Yan Diomande. Meanwhile, Kylian Mbappé topped both the La Liga and Champions League scoring charts.
Home games against Inter, PSV, Leipzig and LASK seem manageable. Trips to Arsenal, Roma, Shakhtar and AEK Athens will say more. A 13.3% chance still looks short for a squad in transition.