A record six English clubs have reached the UCL last-16 for the first time. Newcastle’s glamour tie with Barcelona is another highlight.
| UCL last-16 1st leg match odds markets | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid vs Manchester City | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Newcastle vs Barcelona | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.37 |
| PSG vs Chelsea | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Guardiola renews long-time rivalry with Real
The biggest talking point of Friday’s draw is the pairing of Manchester City and Real Madrid. They’ve been arch-rivals in the Champions League for the last five seasons, with both sides getting the better of one another over the years.
We’ve seen the two sides meet twice in the UCL semi-finals. Real edged City 6-5 on aggregate in their first semi. However, City avenged that defeat with a comprehensive 5-1 aggregate win in 2023.
If there’s one thing we can be sure of in this match-up, it’s goals. Nine goals were scored in their two-legged knockout phase contest last season. Real struck three goals in each leg to gain the upper hand. Their 2023/24 quarter-final also ended 4-4 on aggregate after two games, with Real edging City out on penalties.
Real have been far from convincing in this year’s UCL. They needed a dramatic knockout playoff win over Benfica to reach the last 16. City also have the most impressive expected goals against (xGA) data away from home in the UCL this season. If City can keep Real at bay in the first leg, they will be huge favourites to advance.
Reigning UCL champions meet the Club World Cup champions
Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) were made to sweat by compatriots Monaco in their recent knockout playoff. Luis Enrique’s side are set to take on last summer’s Club World Cup winners, Chelsea. The Blues comprehensively defeated PSG 3-0 in the Club World Cup final, with Les Parisiens ending the game with ten men.
PSG will be desperate to get revenge for their loss at the MetLife Stadium. Les Parisienswill be a tough nut for Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea to crack. They have the best xGA in the UCL this season, at just 0.96 xGA per game.
Chelsea’s xGA is 1.33, but they’ve conceded just 0.75 goals per game on average. This suggests they may be riding their luck defensively at times. PSG have plenty of firepower in their arsenal to punish Chelsea for any mistakes or lapses in focus.
League phase leaders face intense German opposition
Arsenal were flawless during the league phase, topping the table with relative ease. The Gunners won all eight of their matches, scoring 23 goals and conceding only four times. It will be interesting to see how Mikel Arteta’s men fare now they’ve reached the ruthless nature of the knockout stage.
They’ve been paired with German side Bayer Leverkusen, a team built in much the same way as the Gunners. They play with similar intensity and are one of Europe’s most relentless pressing sides, second only to Arsenal.
This promises to be a fascinating match-up, with the side brave enough to navigate the press likely to prevail. Although Leverkusen were hammered 7-2 by PSG in the league phase, they racked up a fine win over Arsenal’s EPL title rivals Manchester City.
Barca to travel to St James’ Park
Barcelona finished the UCL league phase with the joint second-most prolific forward line. Hansi Flick’s men scored 22 goals in eight matches. With Lamine Yamal, Fermin Lopez and an in-form Marcus Rashford, Barca have one of the most dynamic attacks in Europe right now.
They face Eddie Howe’s Newcastle in the last-16, with the first leg likely to be a defining moment. Newcastle take the first leg at home, where their form is notoriously strong in both the UCL and EPL.
The Magpies’ defensive record in this season’s UCL has been solid. They conceded only seven goals in eight matches, losing only two of their league phase games. Barca conceded 14 goals in eight games, so Newcastle know their backline can be exploited.
The smart play from a betting perspective here may not be on the eventual winner, but on the goals markets instead. Barca can score freely but are liable to concede. Newcastle average more than two goals scored per game, making over 2.5 goals in both legs likely.