The Brazilian Serie A is by no means done. 13 rounds are left to play, which means it’s worth exploring the value that outsiders are offering.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A outright winner | Athletico Paranaense to win the league | 67.00 |
| Serie A outright winner | Fluminense to win the league | 81.00 |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Palmeiras are the clear favourites
After 25 league matches, Palmeiras lead the Brazilian Serie A with a four-point buffer over the second-placed team, Flamengo. The Verdao hope to end a two-year wait for the title, which they won back-to-back in 2022 and 2023. It’s clear to see why they top the standings and why bookmakers have given them the favourites tag.
Palmeiras have lost just three of their 25 league matches so far, but they have dropped points through seven stalemates. They still lead the way after recording a league-high 15 wins. However, the table-toppers have shown signs of slowing down in recent weeks.
They’ve averaged 2.08 points per game across the campaign, but that figure has dropped to just 1.75 points across their recent eight matches. That slight drop-off in form is worth mentioning, because it could open the door for the chasing pack. Their title challenge hinges on the quality of their defending and if they can maintain it for the run-in.
Palmeiras conceded an average of 0.8 goals per game, but that average exists only because they’ve played a game more than their immediate challengers. They remain quite solid, however. Jhon Arias returning to full training on 31 August gives them a timely boost, even if that does not guarantee selection or full match sharpness.
Flamengo are still serious title contenders
Despite sitting in second and having four points between themselves and Palmeiras, Flamengo are equal favourites. Unlike the leaders, the Mengao have been building momentum in recent weeks. Overall, they average two points per game, but their recent eight matches saw them average 2.13 goals per game.
It appears that the Scarlet and Black have better underlying attacking and defending numbers. They’ve conceded the same number of goals (21) as the leaders, but they’ve played one game fewer. However, their xGA (expected goals against) is far superior at 22.51 compared to Palmeiras’ 24.01.
Their attack has returned an average of two goals per 90 minutes, and an xG (expected goals) of 36.37, second only to Vasco da Gama. After scoring 48 goals, they are clearly overperforming on that front. To put it into context, the league leaders have an xG of 26.78, ranking them in the bottom six in that regard.
The numbers suggest that Flamengo should go on to win the title from this point. That is why bookmakers have given them the same price as the leaders.
Athletico Paranaense can upset the odds
Athletico Paranaense are currently third, which leaves them seven points behind Palmeiras and very much within touching distance if the leaders wobble.
Their record isn’t flashy, but it’s sturdy, as they’ve conceded 25 goals in as many games, just four more goals than the top two. At the attacking end, the Hurricane are ranked fourth in the division with 37 goals from 25 games, averaging 1.48 goals per 90. Their xG of 35.39 is still better than Palmeiras’ 26.78.
To say they’re overperforming is an understatement, especially as a newly promoted team that spent last season in Serie B. Interestingly, Athletico have recorded 119 shots on target so far, five more than Palmeiras and five fewer than Flamengo. On the defensive side, they conceded 19 shots on target, second-best in Serie A to Corinthians.
The primary argument for them pushing through to the top is their striker, Kevin Viveros. He leads the league with 17 goals. Having scored 46% of Athletico’s league goals, he demonstrates the threat they pose when their main striker is firing. He could have had far more had it not been for missing crucial chances.
Viveros missed 21 big chances this season, while Cruzeiro’s Neiser Villarreal ranks second in the division with 12. The obvious concern is that so much of their title push would depend on one player continuing to carry that burden. As a result, we consider Athletico the clearest outsider worth backing, and a rise from Serie B to Serie A champions would be quite a story.
Fluminense need to improve defensively
Fluminense were originally among the most favoured teams to win the league, but still second to Flamengo and Palmeiras. However, a series of disappointing results has seen their odds drift considerably. Flu are 10 points behind the leaders, and while a challenge looks unlikely right now, the value they offer makes them worth backing.
Their 39 goals and average of 1.6 goals per game are the third-highest total among these featured contenders. That is enough to keep them relevant if the teams above them stumble. The issue for them is that their top scorer, John Kennedy, is out for the season. His average of 0.72 goals per 90 is equal to Viveros's, so replacing him will be difficult.
The encouraging sign for Flu is that no other team averages more than their 5.8 shots on target per 90. Their defensive record is the problem, as they concede an average of 1.3 goals per match, ranking them 10th in that regard. With an xGA of 26.48, Flu are worse off than any of the other contenders on this list.
That makes them much more volatile from week to week. A top-four finish still seems like a more immediate practical target than a sustained title charge. Fluminense remain an intriguing long shot for the title. However, their defensive frailties make them a riskier outsider than Athletico and harder to trust in the outright market.