Vincent Kompany has experienced relative success in his first two seasons, but his team are capable of going all the way in the Champions League.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| To reach the finals of the Champions League | Bayern Munich | 4.35 |
Champions League top goalscorer | Harry Kane | 8.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Bayern’s Champions League dream
Bayern Munich often feature during the latter stages of the Champions League. Since the start of the new decade, they’ve reached one final and won it back in 2019/20. They have also reached two semi-finals and four quarter-finals.
Under Vincent Kompany’s leadership, they made the quarter-finals in his first season. Inter Milan eliminated them with a 4-3 aggregate win. However, he has evidently moved the team forward. Last term, the Bavarians reached the semi-finals, where Paris Saint-Germain edged a 6-5 thriller over two legs.
The Belgian has made steady progress, winning the Bundesliga title in his first season. Last term, he secured the domestic double. However, he was outclassed in one of the European semi-finals on record. His team were the most prolific in Europe’s top five leagues. They scored 122 goals in 34 games.
The next best was Barcelona with 95 goals, 27 goals fewer than the German champions. Those numbers and improvements in the team make Bayern a serious contender to go far once again in this competition.
Kompany has made his ambition clear. Bayern start every season aiming to win the competition, with no excuses in Europe. The current odds for Bayern to reach the final and Kane to win the Golden Boot could make both bets appealing.
The firepower to go all the way
Bayern’s domestic season was exceptional, as they had a goal difference of +86. However, their xG (expected goals) of 96.87 was also far below their 122-goal total, a worrying prospect for any opposition.
Their average goals per 90 was 3.6. Additionally, they averaged 67.4% ball possession and lost just once in the league all season. That level of control shows they have the attacking quality and consistency to handle a long campaign.
The Reds carried their attacking threat into Europe last term. They scored 22 goals in their eight league-phase matches at an average of 2.75 goals per 90. In total, they racked up 43 goals throughout the competition. This shows they were not simply scraping through these matches. They were creating enough chances to trouble even the best teams.
Kompany’s men won both home and away against Real Madrid, scoring four against them at the Allianz Arena. That is no easy feat for any club in Europe.
The ambition of the German champions is clear. They want to go all the way and win the Champions League for a seventh time. Kompany has seen genuine improvement from the first season he took charge. Yet, neither of these elements guarantees that the Reds will actually fulfil their dreams this term.
Looking at their current domestic form, the Bavarians have scored five goals across two games. Their recent output is less convincing than we have come to expect from them.
However, their xG of 6.00 demonstrates that they’re still a major threat in the attacking third. If they can carry that form into Europe, their attacking quality should give them a strong chance of outscoring their opponents.
The numbers behind Kane’s case
Harry Kane provides the strongest case for backing both outright options. The England captain topped the Bundesliga scoring charts for the third season in a row. He scored 36 league goals last term. He also scored 14 in the Champions League, second only to Kylian Mbappe’s 15.
Kane has continued to improve with Bayern. He scored eight Champions League goals in his first season with the club, and then increased that tally to 11 in the 2024/25 season. Last term, he averaged one goal per 90 during the league phase and 1.20 per knockout game. Overall, the forward averaged four shots per game and 1.22 goals per match.
Bayern also kept producing at an elite attacking level deep into the competition. This is important for a top goalscorer bet because the market isn’t only about talent. It's about surviving long enough to give Kane more minutes.
If Bayern reach the final, Kane would likely play a major role. The extra matches would also give him more opportunities to finish as the tournament’s top scorer. If Bayern are knocked out earlier, the top scorer angle becomes more difficult to back, regardless of how well he starts. As a result, the two picks are closely linked, with each one supporting the other.
Kane’s recent achievements also support his case as the competition’s top scorer. He was named Germany’s Footballer of the Year for 2026, the first Englishman to win the honour.
Additionally, he is one of the frontrunners for the Ballon d’Or this year, after his performances for Bayern and England. He scored six goals at the World Cup in North America, where England won bronze.
Bayern’s path to the final
The Germans’ league-phase schedule is manageable on paper. They host Arsenal, Real Betis and Slavia Prague, while travelling to Atlético Madrid, Manchester United, Lille and Viking FK. These fixtures rank in the top ten easiest sets of fixtures based on the net value of their opposition in the league phase.
An easier draw would mean less fatigue later in the season. However, Kompany’s squad depth should make this less of a concern. The Bundesliga champions already beat last season’s underdogs 5-0 in their opening fixture at the Allianz Arena.
Their xG of 2.62 compared to Glimt’s 0.30 and 25 shots to three tell a story of absolute domination. Bayern’s route to the later stages already appears favourable, but they still need to navigate the remaining fixtures successfully.
A simple and clean-cut league phase would give Bayern a better chance of reaching the knockouts in strong shape. Their attacking quality gives them a good chance of putting games to bed rather than relying on narrow wins.
Kane is a proven Champions League scorer, which strengthens the case for Bayern to reach the final. Both Bayern to reach the 2026/27 final and Kane to finish as top scorer look credible, provided there is still enough value in the market at publication.