Rodri has cemented Barca’s midfield this season. Blaugrana have a great chance at pushing for a La Liga and Champions League double in 2026/27.
| 2026/27 Barcelona betting markets | Odds |
| Barca to win 2026/27 La Liga | 1.75 |
| Barca to win 2026/27 Champions League | 8.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Barcelona deserve the La Liga favourites tag after capturing Rodri
Barcelona cruised to the La Liga title last season, finishing eight points clear of Real Madrid to secure back-to-back titles.
Both Spanish giants have been busy this summer, but the Blaugrana's acquisition of Rodri matters most. His arrival is a major reason why the Blaugrana deserve to remain favourites for a third consecutive title.
The general feeling at the start of the window was that Rodri would end up at the Bernabeu. Instead, Barcelona beat their rivals to his signature, with the Spain captain turning down Real Madrid to move to Catalonia.
He arrives as a Ballon d’Or and World Cup winner, having also been player of the tournament at the last two major international competitions.
For a Barcelona side that have had a stranglehold on La Liga under Hansi Flick, that is a significant upgrade in the area where they were vulnerable.
Barca have paid a premium - and denied Real the same midfield upgrade
The deal is worth up to €76.5 million. €60m is paid up front, with a further €16.5m in add-ons tied to what Rodri achieves at Camp Nou.
He has signed a four-year contract running to 2030 after seven seasons and 298 appearances at Manchester City.
That is a premium price for a 30-year-old, but the profile justifies it. Rodri collected 12 major honours at City, including four Premier League titles and the 2022/23 Champions League. In the latter, he scored the winning goal against Inter in Istanbul. Flick did not hedge when asked about the signing, describing him as the best number six in world football.
The strategic value is just as important as the footballing one. Real Madrid pursued Rodri before their interest cooled. In signing Rodri, Barcelona have strengthened their own midfield while denying their closest rival the same reinforcement. In a two-horse race, that counts twice.
Rodri is not Barcelona's only summer business either. Anthony Gordon arrived from Newcastle for an initial €70m, rising towards €80m with add-ons. Gordon agreed a five-year deal after scoring 17 goals in all competitions last season. Karim Adeyemi has also come in as part of the attacking reshuffle Flick requested.
Rodri fixes the one flaw in Flick’s Barca side
Barcelona were not champions by a fine margin. They finished on 94 points from 31 wins, scoring 95 league goals with a goal difference of +59.
Real Madrid ended on 86 points, 77 goals and +42. The title was sealed on 10 May with a 2-0 win over Madrid at Camp Nou, with three matches still to play.
The gap was almost entirely at the attacking end. Barcelona registered a league-best 86.05 expected goals to Madrid's 73.40. They led the shot count 696-661 and the shots-on-target count 268-255. Defensively, the two were nearly identical: Barcelona conceded 36 and Madrid 35.
That is precisely why Rodri looks like a strategic addition rather than a luxury one. Flick already had the most productive attack in Spain. What he lacked was control when the ball was lost.
Barcelona's extremely high defensive line lets them press aggressively and dominate territory. But, in doing so, it leaves acres of space when opponents break the first line of pressure.
Their Champions League exit was a case in point. Trailing Atletico Madrid in the first leg, Pau Cubarsi was sent off for bringing down Giuliano Simeone from a long ball. Julian Alvarez scored the resulting free-kick. Barcelona went out 3-2 on aggregate, having been reduced to ten men in both legs.
Rodri's positional discipline, tackling and composure in possession are designed for exactly that problem. He gives Barcelona a way to slow a game down, protect the high line and sustain pressure without being cut open in transition. Better still, he does it in a possession-based system close to the one where he has spent his entire peak.
Why this creates value for betting on Barca
Barcelona deserve to be favourites in the La Liga market because they were already setting the benchmark in Spain before Rodri entered the picture. This is not a case of one glamorous signing manufacturing a title contender out of nothing. The market reflects that.
The question, therefore, is not whether there is an overlooked outsider worth backing, but whether Barcelona remain good enough to justify their short price.
Rodri makes that price easier to defend. The Blaugrana are chasing their first three consecutive La Liga titles since 2011, when Pep Guardiola had Lionel Messi at his disposal. No La Liga side has managed it since. More midfield control across a 38-game campaign is the most direct route to sustaining a 94-point standard.
The rivalry record adds to it. Since Flick took charge, Barcelona have won six of their seven meetings with Real Madrid across all competitions. This includes the 2026 Supercopa final in January and that decisive 2-0 in May.
Mourinho's return to the Bernabeu after 13 years came with a club-record spending window north of €500m. It also came after two trophyless seasons and two managerial changes. Questions remain about the balance of an attack in which Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr both want the same space.
Barca have a shout at a league and Champions League double
The betting markets give Barcelona a 14.29% chance of winning their first European Cup since 2015. That is a more speculative play, but the logic is not hard to follow.
Flick has taken Barcelona to a semi-final and a quarter-final in two seasons, losing to Inter in 2024/25 and Atletico last term.
On both occasions, they came unstuck on the counter-attack. If Rodri's control genuinely reduces that exposure in two-legged ties, Barcelona could go further.
He has been the anchor of a treble-winning side before, and this squad have more than enough quality.
The caveat is that PSG, fresh from back-to-back titles, sit clearly ahead of Barcelona in the market. In addition, Bayern Munich and Arsenal are priced shorter this summer. Barcelona are genuine contenders, not favourites.
What to be mindful of when betting on Barca in early 2026/27
Three factors should make bettors think twice.
First, Rodri has not kicked a ball for Barcelona. He underwent a minor back surgery after the World Cup, played through discomfort during the tournament and sat out Wednesday's Joan Gamper Trophy against Al Ahly.
He insists he is ready, stating "the operation was nothing serious, it was an outpatient procedure". Nevertheless, he is short of match sharpness and has a serious ACL injury in his recent history.
How Rodri fits alongside Pedri and Frenkie de Jong remains uncertain until they play together.
Second, Barcelona have lost both senior centre-forwards. Robert Lewandowski has left for MLS side Chicago Fire, and Ferran Torres has joined PSG for €50m.
Gordon and Adeyemi provide threats from wide areas. Still, Flick has publicly wanted further additions, and Barcelona have been chasing a striker all summer. Replacing 95 goals with a reshaped front line is far from guaranteed.
Third, the defensive numbers never favoured Barcelona. Madrid conceded fewer goals than anyone in the division last season. Mourinho's whole reputation is built on tightening exactly that. A more conservative, compact Madrid is a plausible route to closing last season’s eight-point gap.
Worth noting for anyone betting on the opening weeks: neither club has played yet.
Barcelona and Real Madrid both deferred their first La Liga fixtures because of World Cup involvement. Therefore, Barcelona begin away at Elche on Sunday 23 August in a rearranged Matchday 2. They then host Athletic Club on 27 August in their rearranged opener.
The first El Clasico falls on 25 October at Camp Nou. A lot can happen between now and the eve of Halloween.