Andoni Iraola is still trying to tighten up his defence, leaving plenty of value in the goals market.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest | 1.85 |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | Liverpool vs Ipswich Town | 1.82 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
New season, same problems
Liverpool’s defensive vulnerabilities from last season appear to have carried over into the new Premier League campaign. The Reds drew 2-2 with Newcastle on the opening day and had to come from behind twice to rescue the point. Despite having more possession and shots at goal, they were quite open on the counter, which the Magpies exploited.
Andoni Iraola will need time to turn this squad into a competitive one, while still struggling with a leaky defence. Newcastle had four shots on target but scored two goals, highlighting how easy it was to get past Liverpool’s defence. The Reds conceded as early as the fifth minute without putting up much of a resistance.
The hosts simply ran through the middle of the pitch after gaining possession near their own penalty area. Newcastle’s pace was too much for the Liverpool back line to handle, and that’s why both goals were almost carbon copies of each other. Even with 61% possession and a staggering 27 shots, Liverpool’s weakness is quite evident. Their upcoming opponents are likely to take advantage of that.
The ideal game plan
Liverpool’s potential for high-scoring matches did not suddenly emerge at St James’ Park last week. The fact that 68% of their league matches last season saw both teams score was evidence of the defensive vulnerability. The goals angle isn’t based on Liverpool being outplayed, as they still controlled the match. Their issue was simply that they were far too exposed defensively.
Their dominance in possession often reveals the gaps in their transitional defence. If their final pass in the attacking third breaks down, they lack the pace to recover and restore a solid defensive shape. Virgil van Dijk is an ageing defender, and he doesn’t yet have a permanent defensive partner, as Iraola continues to assess Jeremy Jacquet and Ronald Araujo.
That leaves opponents with plenty of room to attack behind the defensive line. Both of Newcastle’s goals demonstrated this clearly, and there was a reluctance from defenders to commit tactical fouls. Ryan Gravenberch had the chance to stop Yoane Wissa’s counter-attack but chose not to, seemingly to avoid a booking. A more committed defender would have taken the risk.
Before Iraola implements the potential solutions to this problem, Liverpool are likely to offer similar displays in upcoming games. The market is still pricing Liverpool based on their superiority. Forest and Ipswich are both about to face a side expected to control territory, create chances, and win the game.
The problem is that Liverpool’s only league game so far has already produced two goals scored, two conceded, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. One match doesn’t prove a season-long trend, but it’s enough to create a short-term betting window. Newcastle showed a straightforward route for opponents to get chances of their own, which is something Forest and Ipswich must be aware of.
Liverpool’s attacking approach leaves them exposed in transition
Iraola was quite pragmatic after the Newcastle match, explaining that both goals came from transitions but for different reasons. He even said that his men had enough numbers to defend the second goal better and should’ve prevented the goal.
With Liverpool’s current attacks, Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai are joining the front unit, while the full-backs are also high up the pitch. It reflects the approach Iraola favoured at Bournemouth, where it produced positive results to an extent. However, that system relies on having players with the pace to recover quickly and disrupt counter-attacks.
The new head coach did point out the need to be more aggressive against the ball carrier, even if that meant stopping the move earlier. That makes this look like a collective defence issue that may take time to clean up. It’s not evidence that the system itself is flawed after just one league game.
We also can’t ignore Liverpool’s quality in attack. Alexander Isak is a proven goalscorer, while Florian Wirtz is starting to make his mark in the league. Bradley Barcola could be on his way to replace Mo Salah, while Szoboszlai remains a threat from long range and set pieces. With so much attacking talent available, the Reds should continue to pose serious problems for most Premier League defences.
Goals likely in the next two games
Nottingham Forest and Ipswich Town could be the next sides to take advantage of Liverpool’s defensive weaknesses before they are addressed. Forest don’t need a full case built around them to make the bet work. They lost 1-0 at home to Leeds in their opening league match, but they’ve still scored in three of the five recent meetings with Liverpool.
Forest’s previous trip to Anfield offers further encouragement. They posted an xG of 1.58 compared with Liverpool’s 1.93, yet the Tricky Trees came away with a 3-0 victory. That game followed a similar pattern to Liverpool’s opening-day clash with Newcastle, where the Reds controlled the match but still conceded. Backing goals gives bettors more room for a game in which Liverpool dominate but still concede at least once.
Ipswich offer a slightly cleaner fit for both teams to score. Their opening league game was a 2-1 home win over Sunderland, so their only current sample has already landed BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Liverpool scored four times the last time they clashed with the Tractor Boys. Meanwhile, three of the last four league meetings produced a minimum of four goals.
The safer bet
If Liverpool remain vulnerable in transition for the next few games, BTTS could land without needing the underdog to take points. That is why it is the safer route than chasing a more aggressive bet. There’s no doubting Liverpool’s quality and ability. They can still win these fixtures while conceding along the way.
Opting for the ‘above two goals’ market is also an option. Last season, 61% of Liverpool’s league matches produced more than two goals on the day. That was only one game fewer than four other clubs managed and two behind Chelsea, who led the way.
There is an obvious risk to the whole argument. Iraola has already identified the problem areas. The value will disappear quickly if Liverpool improve their transition defending sooner than expected. However, based on their 2-2 draw with Newcastle, both teams to score looks like the most sensible way to target Liverpool’s goals before the market catches up.