Xabi Alonso’s men appear more focused on outscoring opponents than shutting them down. This makes the goals market particularly appealing.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Chelsea | BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 |
| Chelsea vs Leeds | BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | 1.89 |
| Chelsea vs Hull City | BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Chelsea’s goal feasts to keep coming
Chelsea’s first two Premier League matches have already produced 12 goals. The Blues scored seven and conceded five across wins over Fulham and Brighton. Their underlying data shows their potent attack on paper matches what they’re doing on the field. As a result, they’re likely to challenge any opponent on the day, even those that are difficult to break down.
The Blues’ next two league games are against teams who have yet to concede a goal ahead of Matchday 3. Arsenal and Hull City have quite different profiles, but they’ve managed to record two clean sheets apiece. However, based on the data available, neither of them are likely to keep Chelsea at bay.
Prolific attack, leaky defence
Xabi Alonso’s men share the top spot in goals scored this season. They have seven in two games - an average of 3.5 goals per match. Based on the players in their attack, Chelsea were always going to pose a threat going forward. Their xG (expected goals) this season is 5.17, joint-third alongside Brighton.
The Blues struck 35 shots, with 12 on target across both matches. They also created 10 big chances, which was just one behind Manchester United and Brighton, who ranked top of the division in that regard. That is a strong attacking base this early in the season, especially for a team still adjusting to a new manager.
Chelsea are more direct in the final third. Cole Palmer’s freedom to drift, receive and create gives them another route into dangerous areas. In addition, Joao Pedro has an xG of 1.9 and has scored twice already. Meanwhile, Morgan Rogers created nine chances for his teammates, the most in the Premier League. He tops the charts for xA (expected assists) at 1.1.
The Brighton game summed up Chelsea’s current profile. They were 3-0 up by the 32nd minute and still ended up in a one-goal margin game. The Blues are creating enough to hurt opponents quickly, but they’re not controlling matches well enough to shut the door.
An example of that is in their ball possession - the West London club averaged 32% ball possession, ranking 19th in the league. Additionally, they’ve conceded 2.5 goals per match, placing them in the bottom four across the entire division. Chelsea are ranked fifth for goals conceded, fifth for shots on target conceded (12), and fifth for shot conversion percentage (17.24). This must keep Alonso up at night.
Value in the next few games
Arsenal away is the strongest test of Chelsea’s early attacking form. That is why the safer betting angle makes the most sense. The Gunners have already kept two clean sheets, following their 19 from 38 matches last term (50%).
Yet, four of the last six head-to-heads saw both teams score. Arsenal’s potential absences of William Saliba and Christian Mosquera could also open the door for Chelsea.
Six of Chelsea’s last seven Premier League matches have produced over 2.5 goals. That’s why it’s worth exploring the selection heading into all of Chelsea’s next three games.
Leeds conceded 56 league goals last season and failed to keep a clean sheet in 30 of their 38 matches. Three of the last four meetings between the clubs saw the goal count rise to above 2.5, while both teams found the back of the net. With Leeds’ xGA (expected goals against) of 2.33 and Chelsea’s at 2.74, this selection looks sensible.
Chelsea will then entertain Hull City at Stamford Bridge. Bookmakers don’t expect much from the newly promoted team. Despite keeping consecutive clean sheets, the Tigers recorded an xGA of 3.12 and conceded 32 shots, ranking them sixth in the league. Against Manchester United, Hull faced 21 shots and recorded an xGA of 1.83, compared with an attacking xG of 1.01.
The Tigers will find it tough to prevent the home side from scoring freely at home, but they will have chances to score. Both teams share excellent shot conversion rates, with Hull registering 21.43% - the best in the league. Meanwhile, Chelsea sit third at 20%. As a result, backing both teams to score and the goal count to soar beyond 2.5 is a legitimate option.
Another supporting argument for this is that the last three meetings between the teams finished with more than two goals scored. Chelsea won 4-0 in an FA Cup tie earlier this year, matching the scoreline from their previous meeting in 2018.