Arsenal’s continuity shouldn’t be overlooked. They have the foundations to build on their recent success and dominate the league.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League outright | Arsenal first at Christmas | 2.25 |
| Premier League outright | David Raya Golden Glove | 2.40 |
| Premier League outright | Arsenal unbeaten all season | 34.00 |
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Arsenal’s Shield win offers promising signs
Arsenal’s 3-0 Community Shield win over Manchester City sparked several outright betting opportunities for their season. With the Premier League season about to commence, it’s worth backing the Gunners in a few outright markets based on their performances. After their opener against Coventry, we could see major shifts in betting value surrounding the champions.
Mikel Arteta’s triumph over City should be treated as reinforcement rather than proof, but the underlying numbers were strong as well. City were always going to need some time to adapt, but the drop-off in the season opener was shocking, to say the least. Enzo Maresca’s men held more possession and completed more passes, but they didn’t really pose a threat.
Both teams managed five shots on target, but it was the Gunners who were far more threatening. City’s xG (expected goals) in the game was only 1.12, compared to Arsenal’s 2.16. Martin Odegaard’s goal came from 0.82 xG, with Riccardo Calafiori and Kai Havertz converting chances worth 0.45 and 0.44 xG, respectively.
Meanwhile, Christos Tzolis supplied two assists. Arsenal did not simply edge a result, but they created better opportunities. The North Londoners scored three times, while City failed to find the net. This shows Arsenal’s superiority at both ends of the pitch.
The Cityzens were the most potent team in the Premier League last season, with an xG of 70.05. However, they couldn’t penetrate the Arsenal back line. If the Gunners can nullify their closest title rivals so effectively, it raises questions about how other teams will cope. Liverpool and Chelsea need time to adapt to a new manager, while Manchester United haven’t been entirely convincing to challenge for the title yet.
Raya and Arsenal’s defence lead the way
Arsenal’s defence suggests David Raya is the prime option to retain the Golden Glove award for the fourth consecutive season. The Gunners conceded a league-low 27 goals and kept a league-high 19 clean sheets last term, with Raya central to that record.
Raya’s 50% clean-sheet rate from last season gives this outright market a much firmer base than simply chasing their result from the Community Shield.
The North Londoners winning the league at Christmas should be the primary option. Continuity could help the Gunners make a fast start while their rivals adjust to new systems. The Gunners were top at Christmas in two of the last three seasons. Even when not at their best and with a thinner squad depth than what they have currently, they were a force to be reckoned with.
Their defensive foundation is usually what keeps an outright bet like this alive when the schedule becomes more demanding. Arsenal’s xGA (expected goals against) last season was 28.37, which was by far the lowest in the division. Their nearest rivals, City, recorded an xGA of 43.70, which indicates how vast that gap was last season.
Arsenal have shown incredible strength in squad depth. Even with the absence of William Saliba, they kept Erling Haaland and company quiet. The lack of a drop-off when Arsenal rotate their squad should be a major concern for the rest of the Premier League. In addition, Ezri Konsa is expected to join the Gunners, as the England international can provide cover at centre-back and right-back.
Considering their stability, squad depth, and continuity with management, the Gunners are in a prime position to dominate the league. They’ve also made wise signings, which only strengthen them further, and their dominance will be evident early on.
Arsenal host Coventry City on Friday night, and a heavy win here will trim their outright price. Still, backing Raya to win a fourth consecutive Golden Glove seems the smart choice for now, while Arsenal to win outright is the more ambitious selection.