More Spot Kicks Drama? Why It Is A Good Idea To Back The Favourites To Win On Penalties

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The two most important continental competitions for national sides, Euro 2024 and the Copa America, have reached their climaxes as both tournaments enter the semi-final stage. As expected, when the level of the remaining teams increases, matches become tighter, and goals are at a premium compared to the group stage.

In fact, five out of the eight quarter-finals have been decided on penalties, with Spain vs. Germany nearly requiring spot kicks as La Roja scored in the last minute of extra time.

Each of the five penalty shootouts saw the favourite team winning, which does not come as a surprise to bettors who have followed this trend in recent years. So, if all the semi-finals go the distance, who should you pick and why?

A history of heroics and tears

The Euro 2024 quarter-finals have been packed with emotion, with the eight teams involved delivering exceptionally tense games. As seen in previous tournaments, the number of goals scored has started to decrease, currently standing at 2.25 per match since the beginning of the knockout stage.

In fact, from the Round of 16, games have seen an average of 2.08 goals per game, excluding extra time, with eight out of 12 games producing fewer than three goals. Historically, betting on under 2.5 goals during the knockout stage has been consistently profitable in each round of the Euros since their inception.

It is likely both semi-finals, Spain vs. France and Netherlands vs. England will not produce a high number of goals, and there is a high probability of a draw in 90 minutes. Extra time periods often witness defensive play, and two of the last six Euros semi-finals have been decided by penalties. So, who should you back?

Since the 1998 World Cup, the favourites have emerged victorious in 23 out of 33 penalty shootouts across both the World Cup and Euro tournaments. This trend has held true for Portugal, England, and France in this tournament.

Spain, who are the favourites to beat France, have won seven out of 13 penalty shootouts, including the last Nations League final against Croatia. England’s record from the penalty spot remains negative with four wins and seven defeats. Still, under Gareth Southgate, the Three Lions have achieved success in three of their last four shootouts. The Netherlands' win ratio is only 25%, whereas France have lost two World Cup finals from the spot.

With the semi-finals approaching, will we witness more penalty drama, and who will prevail in the pressure cooker of a shootout?