Can Guardiola’s reinforced squad reclaim the Premier League crown?
Pep Guardiola has already strengthened his squad in an effort to win back the Premier League title from Liverpool. However, betting tips for Man City are different from usual this season. Opta Analyst expects Manchester City to finish just as they did last season, in third place.
However, with big value odds for them to win the Premier League, betting on them is worth considering. They’ve already spent a lot of money to sign Tijjani Reijnders, who will likely rotate in defensive midfield as Rodri recovers from a long-term injury. With a stronger defence, City could make an upset and challenge for the title, or at least finish ahead of Arsenal in second place.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 4.50 | 22.22% |
| Top Four | 1.25 | 80% |
| Top Six | 1.08 | 92.31% |
All odds courtesy of 1xBet, correct at the time of publication. May now differ.
Last season's finish: 3rd
Opening five fixtures difficulty
Difficulty calculated on historical H2H (past six league meetings) and outright odds
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | Wolves (A) | 1-2 Win | 2 |
| 23/08/2025 | Tottenham (H) | 0-4 Loss | 3 |
| 31/08/2025 | Brighton (A) | 2-1 Loss | 3 |
| 14/09/2025 | Manchester United (H) | 1-2 Loss | 3 |
| 21/09/2025 | Arsenal (A) | 5-1 Loss | 5 |
City had a difficult last season, as they lost to four of their first five opponents this season. However, it wouldn’t be fair to use that as a measure of their current form, especially with Pep still leading the club. They’ve largely kept the core of their squad, which will help them a lot this term.
As the fixture difficulty rating indicates, City could secure maximum points in four of their five opening fixtures. Backing them to win against Wolves and Brighton away, and then defeat Spurs and Man Utd at home, may be a good bet. The real challenge for them will be at the Emirates Stadium, especially since Arsenal have also added more players to their squad.
Player focus
Kevin De Bruyne’s departure for Napoli will leave a significant hole in the City lineup. The Belgian star player had 117 Premier League assists, a number only Ryan Giggs surpasses. However, that is why they have signed Ryan Cherki, as he had an average of 0.58 assists per 90 minutes for Lyon in the last year. While it may seem less, he's in the top 1% of attacking midfielders/wingers across the big five leagues.
Additionally, Savinho is Pep’s preferred winger and was City’s top player for assists last season, having set up eight goals for his teammates. While there is value in backing Cherki and Savinho in the assists market, Rayan Ait-Nouri shouldn’t be overlooked. The former Wolves man will certainly attack often, and with seven assists last season, he is also a strong candidate to back.
Featured stats
- Manchester City conceded an average of 9.34 shots per game last season, the fewest in the Premier League. However, their opponents netted 1.16 goals per game on average. This is the most goals they have conceded in a league campaign since 2009/10, when Mark Hughes was dismissed midway through the season and replaced by Roberto Mancini. With attacking full-backs like Ait-Nouri and Matheus Nunes, they might allow goals once again.
- In 2024/2025, Manchester City conceded 11 goals before the 15th minute of their league matches. Only West Ham (13) conceded more in the opening 15 minutes of their games.
Value Outright
There is value in two outright markets for Manchester City. They should never be written off with winning the league title, as Pep and his side know what it takes to win. Liverpool and Arsenal will be watching them closely because the last time City lost the league title, they came back to win four in a row.
Additionally, they have a good chance of finishing second. Opta have given City a 17.3% chance of catching up to Arsenal and ending as runners-up, while the Gunners have an 18.7% chance of finishing behind Liverpool. With the odds doubling the bet, it’s not a bad option.
Best bet: Outright Premier League winner - 4.50 on 1xBet
Best bet: Top 2 finish - 2.10 on 1xBet
Profitability
1X2 Market
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -6.60 | -0.84 | -2.46 | -17.4% | -2.2% | -6.5% |
| Home | -0.12 | -6.05 | -4.45 | -0.6% | -31.9% | -23.4% |
| Away | -6.48 | 5.22 | 1.99 | -34.1% | 27.5% | 10.5% |
| 2023/2024 | -1.69 | -0.81 | -21.53 | -4.4% | -2.1% | -56.7% |
| Home | -2.21 | 10.42 | -19.00 | -11.6% | 54.8% | -100.0% |
| Away | 0.52 | -11.23 | -2.53 | 2.7% | -59.1% | -13.3% |
| 2022/2023 | -0.17 | -8.32 | -3.69 | -0.4% | -21.9% | -9.7% |
| Home | 3.06 | -9.46 | 0.26 | 16.1% | -49.8% | 1.4% |
| Away | -3.23 | 1.14 | -3.95 | -17.0% | 6.0% | -20.8% |
Asian Handicap Market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | -8.44 | 4.39 | -22.2% | 11.5% |
| Home | -2.71 | 0.45 | -14.3% | 2.4% |
| Away | -5.73 | 3.93 | -30.2% | 20.7% |
| 2023/2024 | -0.78 | -2.14 | -2.1% | -5.6% |
| Home | -4.01 | 1.80 | -21.1% | 9.5% |
| Away | 3.23 | -3.94 | 17.0% | -20.7% |
| 2022/2023 | 2.02 | -3.88 | 5.3% | -10.2% |
| Home | 5.76 | -6.97 | 30.3% | -36.7% |
| Away | -3.74 | 3.09 | -19.7% | 16.3% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of 1xBet and were correct at time of collection.
While City are typically strong at home, the 2022/23 season offered a decent return on investment that decreased by 11.6% last season. However, victories on the road slightly increased the profit margins by 2.7%.
Bets on them to draw at home brought in the biggest payouts last season. There was a 54.8% ROI for betting City to draw league games at the Etihad. It’s not a bad bet, provided it’s against decent opposition.
Man City struggled last season, having achieved their lowest Premier League points tally under Pep Guardiola. They lost the Asian handicap line in 21.5 of their 38 matches. Only Tottenham lost more.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS - Yes | % of scored the first goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 61% | 55% | 58% |
| 2023/2024 | 63% | 61% | 68% |
| 2022/2023 | 66% | 58% | 82% |
The difference between last season and the treble-winning season is evident. Man City scored 24 fewer goals and conceded 10 more, which resulted in a goal difference that was 34 worse. This shows they had problems in both their attack and defence.
In 2022/23, City have scored first in 82% of their league games. However, that number reduced to just 58% last term, which is 10% down from 2023/24. Still, over half their games saw both teams find the net, although they worked hard to reduce that. All things considered, they kept 13 clean sheets, one behind Liverpool and level with Arsenal.
Team xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/2025 | 72 | 68.1 | 44 | 47.7 | +28 | +20.4 |
| 2023/2024 | 96 | 80.5 | 34 | 35.6 | +62 | +44.9 |
| 2022/2023 | 94 | 78.6 | 33 | 32.1 | +61 | +46.5 |
Source: FbREF