The Reds are given even odds to achieve at least 82 points this season. They finished last season with 84 points, having lost only four games all year. Given the consistency of their goal output and goals conceded in the last two or three seasons. They have adjusted well to Arne Slot following the departure of Jurgen Klopp.
Arsenal could be their closest challengers, according to the betting markets. The Gunners currently have an equal chance of earning 79 points or more this year. This would put them within 3-4 points of the Reds in implied probability terms.
| Market | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Winner | 2.75 | 36.36% |
| Top Four | 1.11 | 90.00% |
| Top Six | 1.06 | 94.12% |
Odds via Stake correct at time of publication. May now differ.
Opening five fixtures difficulty
| Date | Opponent | Result last season | Difficulty |
| 15/08/2025 | Bournemouth (H) | 3-0 Win | 3 |
| 25/08/2025 | Newcastle (A) | 3-3 | 4 |
| 31/08/2025 | Arsenal (H) | 2-2 | 4 |
| 14/09/2025 | Burnley (A) | N/A | 2 |
| 20/09/2025 | Everton (H) | 1-0 Win | 2 |
The Reds have one of the toughest starts to a Premier League season. They will face Newcastle, Arsenal, and city rivals, Everton, in their first five games.
Backing them to win on the opening day of the season may be worthwhile. The Reds eased to a 3-0 win over AFC Bournemouth last season, and the Cherries seem like they are in weaker form.
It may be wise to avoid betting on the Newcastle and Arsenal games early in the season. Meanwhile, betting on Liverpool to beat Burnley and Everton seems like a safe choice.
The Clarets should offer little resistance, while David Moyes’ Everton are eager to sign new players. They don’t appear to have built on the positive momentum from Moyes’ arrival in the latter half of 24/25.
Player focus
Florian Wirtz has provided 10 or more assists in three of his last four seasons. Additionally, he’s outperformed his xA by 5.9, 2.8, 2.1, and 2.3 in his last four campaigns.
Wirtz is considered one of the most promising attack-minded midfielders on the planet. That’s why Liverpool were prepared to spend a club-record fee of over £100m to sign him from Bayer Leverkusen.
Wirtz should be given the freedom to attack for the Reds, especially with the likes of Gravenberch and Mac Allister providing defensive support. With a free rein behind the striker, Wirtz will aim to create scoring chances for the likes of Salah and Ekitike.
Given the historical data of his last four seasons, there is plenty of value in backing him to repeat that in his debut campaign in England.
The only concern is how well he adjusts to English football, which may explain the reduced probability. However, it’s still worth a bet.
- Best bet: Florian Wirtz 10 or more assists at 3.25 on Stake
Featured stats
- Harry Kane has clinched the Bundesliga top goalscorer award in Germany with 26 goals. However, Hugo Ekitike, formerly of Eintracht Frankfurt, had a better score in the Non-Penalty Expected Goals metric: 13.3npxG vs 19.3npxG.
- Liverpool (83.5xG) ended the season 14.3xG ahead of any other Premier League side in the Expected Goals stakes last term. Chelsea and Manchester City (69.2xG) were the next best on the underlying data throughout 2024/25.
- In 2024/25, Liverpool became the first team, other than Manchester City, to collect the most Expected Points in one season since 2016/17.
Value outright
Backing Liverpool to win the Premier League title for a second successive season seems like a good value bet. At implied probabilities of more than 90% and 94%, there’s no real value or return in backing the Reds to finish in the top four or six.
Surprisingly, Arne Slot’s side have been given only a 36% probability to win back-to-back titles. This seems low considering that the Reds have already strengthened their forward line by signing Hugo Ekitike.
Additionally, Alexander Isak could potentially make a British record switch from Newcastle before the transfer window ends. It’s almost impossible to bet against a Liverpool side that features Salah, Ekitike, and Isak.
Liverpool are continually investing in players for the starting XI. Meanwhile, there’s also plenty of depth across the squad. This includes several homegrown stars who have proven that they can perform at the Premier League level.
Since the Reds face a difficult start to the season, it might be wise to wait before betting on them to clinch the title. Especially since it’s not yet clear how much time they will need to get into their best form.
- Liverpool outright best bet: Liverpool to win the league at 2.75 on Stake
Profitability
| Season | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L | Win ROI | Draw ROI | Loss ROI |
| 2024/2025 | -2.20 | 3.06 | -16.45 | -5.8% | 8.0% | -43.3% |
| Home | -0.29 | 2.17 | -6.14 | -1.5% | 11.4% | -32.3% |
| Away | -1.91 | 0.88 | -10.31 | -10.1% | 4.6% | -54.2% |
| 2023/2024 | -3.10 | 10.31 | -11.04 | -8.2% | 27.1% | -29.1% |
| Home | 0.60 | -5.53 | -4.65 | 3.2% | -29.1% | -24.5% |
| Away | -3.70 | 15.84 | -6.39 | -19.5% | 83.4% | -33.6% |
| 2022/2023 | -5.16 | 8.77 | 11.55 | -13.6% | 23.1% | 30.4% |
| Home | 1.92 | 3.84 | -7.18 | 10.1% | 20.2% | -37.8% |
| Away | -7.08 | 4.93 | 18.73 | -37.3% | 25.9% | 98.6% |
Asian Handicap market
| Season | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI | AH Loss ROI |
| 2024/2025 | -6.15 | 3.04 | -16.2% | 8.0% |
| Home | -3.52 | 2.03 | -18.5% | 10.7% |
| Away | -2.63 | 1.01 | -13.8% | 5.3% |
| 2023/2024 | 1.16 | -3.17 | 3.1% | -8.3% |
| Home | 3.06 | -3.93 | 16.1% | -20.7% |
| Away | -1.9 | 0.76 | -10.0% | 4.0% |
| 2022/2023 | -10.79 | 8.14 | -28.4% | 21.4% |
| Home | -5.08 | 3.83 | -26.7% | 20.2% |
| Away | -5.71 | 4.31 | -30.1% | 22.7% |
Calculations are based on a single unit basis. Odds data taken from closing prices of Stake and was correct at time of collection.
The above data suggests that it’s been surprisingly profitable to bet on a draw, especially in Liverpool’s away games in recent seasons. For example, betting on a draw in Liverpool’s away fixtures would’ve yielded a profit of 15.84 units in 2023/24 and 4.93 units in 2022/23.
It’s clear that there’s no real advantage to simply bet on Liverpool to win their home games, despite their dominance. This strategy 23/24 would’ve resulted in a small profit of 0.60 units for the entire season. It would have led to a loss of 5.16 units in 2022/23.
There has also been very little advantage in backing Liverpool in the Asian Handicap markets lately. In the 2022/23 season, when the Reds finished 5th, it was possible to make a profit by always betting against them in the Asian Handicap market at home or away.
However, since the team has improved, the profit potential has significantly decreased. Backing them to lose all season in the Asian Handicap markets returned a 3.17 unit loss in 2023/24. At the same time, backing the Reds to win all season in the same markets only yielded a 1.16 unit profit in 2023/24.
Goals market
| Season | % of Over 2.5 | % of BTTS - Yes | % of scored the first goal |
| 2024/2025 | 63% | 61% | 66% |
| 2023/2024 | 66% | 68% | 55% |
| 2022/2023 | 61% | 53% | 47% |
It’s worth noting that more of Liverpool’s games in 23/24 and 24/25 saw both teams score than in 22/23, when they finished fifth in the Premier League.
Liverpool's tendency to score the first goal has increased significantly over the last three seasons. After scoring first in less than half, or 47%, of games in 22/23, they scored first in two-thirds of games last season, which equates to 66%.
If this trend continues or is even maintained, there would be value in backing the Reds to score first this season if the odds are 1.52 or higher.
Liverpool’s matches have consistently featured three or more goals during the last three seasons. Given the Reds’ additional firepower, they should achieve similar numbers in 25/26. Backing Over 2.5 goals could offer good value at odds of 1.59 or higher.
Team xG data
| Season | Goals scored | xG | Goals conceded | xGA | GD | xG difference |
| 2024/2025 | 86 | 82.2 | 41 | 38.6 | +45 | +43.6 |
| 2023/2024 | 86 | 87.8 | 41 | 42.0 | +45 | +42 |
| 2022/2023 | 75 | 71.5 | 47 | 50.8 | +28 | +20.7 |
Source: FbREF