Although only 13 matchdays have passed in the French top flight, Strasbourg, Auxerre, and Lyon have already picked up four red cards each.
| Card Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Strasbourg vs Brest - Over 4.5 Match Cards | 2.00 |
| Paris FC vs Auxerre - Auxerre Over 2.5 Cards | 1.61 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The European leagues producing the most red cards
Last weekend saw a high number of red cards across Europe. Six were shown in La Liga alone. There were an additional three in France, while two players were sent off in the Bundesliga, and one in Serie A.
The Premier League is often considered as the most physical and intense of the major European top flights. However, that hasn’t resulted in more players being sent off this season.
Idrissa Gueye’s clash with his Everton teammate on Monday night resulted in the 13th red card of the campaign. All four other major European leagues have seen more red cards, except Serie A, which is also on 13.
There have been 18 sendings-off in the Bundesliga, at a rate of 0.18 per match. On top of that, there is a significant increase for La Liga, which has an average of 0.26 red cards per game.
However, even that is fewer than Ligue 1, where 34 players have already been sent off this season. That equates to an average of 1.89 red cards per club, and 0.29 reds per 90 minutes.
The likes of Strasbourg, Auxerre, and Lyon have been driving that trend. All of their matches have an average of 0.50 red cards.
Where might tempers flare this weekend?
This weekend’s Seville derby is the most likely source of a red card over the next few days in Spain. On average, Sevilla have received 3.23 cards per game, which is the most in La Liga. Meanwhile, two of their last three home derbies against Betis have resulted in a red card.
However, the data suggests that Ligue 1 may be where bettors can find the most value in card markets. Strasbourg’s meeting with Brest on Sunday is one fixture that certainly offers potential.
There have been red cards shown in each of Strasbourg’s last two league games. Both sides were reduced to 10 players in their defeat at Lens last weekend, as Valentin Barco was sent off for Racing. With an implied probability of just 16.7%, there’s value in backing their latest match to feature another red card.
Meanwhile, Paris FC’s clash with Auxerre seems like an even stronger candidate in the red card market. Between the two clubs, six players have received red cards this season in Ligue 1. Within the last four matchdays alone, both clubs have been involved in games that produced two red cards.
Last term, Auxerre also ranked among the six worst teams with the worst overall disciplinary record in the division. Therefore, this is not a new trend for them.
There’s an implied probability of 22.2% that a red card is shown in Saturday’s match at the Stade Jean-Bouin. That also appears to offer value, given Auxerre’s disciplinary problems.
Notably, a red card shown to any player will count as two cards for settlement purposes with various bookmakers. Considering Ligue 1's fiery start to the season, there might be an opportunity for a red card to edge the current card totals over in the line in Paris and Strasbourg.