La Liga schedule creates huge outright value for title favourites

Real Madrid's exhausting summer schedule in America could lead to a slow start, potentially allowing Barcelona to have an insurmountable early lead.

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Will La Liga’s elite continue to dominate?

Many fans consider the release of the fixture schedule as the real start of the new season. Players at the biggest clubs in Spain will return to full training in the next couple of weeks to prepare for another long season. It’s also a good starting point for bettors to analyse the upcoming season.

Bettors may look at those title odds and wonder where the value is, and understandably so. Real Madrid and Barcelona are short-priced picks to triumph next season. Atletico Madrid are considerably behind them, while Athletic Bilbao are even further back.

Realistically, bettors only have two sides to pick between in the La Liga outright market. Since 2004/05, Barcelona and Real Madrid have won 19 of the last 21 La Liga titles. Atletico Madrid are the only other team to win it twice.

In 2003/04, Valencia were the last side from outside of La Liga’s ‘big three’ to lift the trophy. That highlights the difficulty of the task for the other challengers. That record is probably also enough to convince bettors not to wager on any team with longer odds than Atletico.

However, is that about to change with more competitive teams and increased matches for the sides in Europe? The release of the fixture schedule is a good time to start looking a little further into the future to search for value in outright markets. 

Two frontrunners have generous starts

While Barcelona have enjoyed a summer of rest and recuperation to enjoy their title success, the two Madrid sides have been at the Club World Cup. With pre-season still to come for Barca, they’ll have plenty of time to get up to speed before their title defence now the fixtures have been released.

Madrid will perhaps be glad then to see two of their first three fixtures fall at home. Meanwhile, Barca will play each of their first three matches away from home amid ongoing development at Camp Nou. Having collected more away points than any other side in La Liga last season, Barca shouldn’t fear away matches. However, they will be playing a couple of opponents that have caused them problems in recent seasons. 

Barca won’t be relishing an early trip to newly-promoted Levante given they’ve lost on three of their last six visits there. Five of those six outings saw Barca concede at least twice, so there has been plenty of evidence to suggest they’ll be vulnerable in Valencia.

They may have some momentum to take into that clash on matchday two. They face Mallorca on the opening day and have won 14 of the last 15 meetings between the clubs. Another win in mid-August could help them get through trips to Levante and Rayo Vallecano before the month is over. 

Madrid’s opening three games come against Osasuna, Oviedo and Mallorca. That appears to be fairly generous, especially given that two of the three will be played at the Santiago Bernabeu. Madrid have only lost two of their last 41 home games in La Liga.

Ovideo away is a potential banana skin. It’s the newly-promoted side’s first home match in La Liga since the 2000-01 season. After coming up through the playoffs, they should be the league’s weakest side. The nature of the match and the recent history of that club mean it won’t be straightforward. 

With both sides looking good value to produce solid starts, it may be worthwhile looking deeper into the season to see where one of these two could potentially stumble. 

The return of the Champions League coincides with a tricky-looking run for Barca at the end of October. They face Sociedad, Sevilla, Girona and an El Clásico with European games sandwiched in between. With a tricky run supplemented by extra games, it could be worth seeing how they come out of that run before judging their title credentials. 

That could be the case for those thinking of backing Madrid too. If Barca can come through that tricky spell with flying colours, then Madrid’s odds are likely to be a little more generous than they are currently. After growing into the Club World Cup, it’s easy to see why Madrid are favoured.

There’s no doubt that at this very moment, Barca are the value pick in the title race. A below-evens Madrid offer little betting value, and with concerns over their continued fixture pile up, there is reason to approach them with caution.