Teams won from behind on 63 occasions last season, more than any other since the inception of the Premier League. That marked a rise from the 57 wins from losing positions in the 2022/23 campaign.
The comeback trend has continued in the early stages of the current season. Most of the goals have been scored in the second half of games, and much to the dismay of the coaches, plenty of leads have been squandered. Our expert assesses the trend and highlights two games that bettors can take advantage of this weekend.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Newcastle vs Brighton - Over 1.5 Second Half Goals | |
Wolves vs Manchester City - Manchester City To Win & Both Teams To Score |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
On Course For a Premier League Record
There have been 12 comeback victories in the Premier League so far this season, meaning we are on course for 65, beating the record set last term. The extended added time at the end of matches was a crucial factor. The average of 11 minutes and 42 seconds of added time marked a significant increase from the previous five campaigns, which saw an average of seven minutes and 20 seconds.
Most of the added time coming in the second half has led to an increase in goals after the break. Last season, there was an average of 1.36 goals in the first half of matches. This increased to 1.92 per game in the second. Action has been taken to reduce stoppage time in the 24/25 campaign, but the number of comeback wins makes second-half goals an appealing market.
There were three comeback wins on matchday seven of the Premier League. Manchester City came from behind to beat Fulham 3-2. Arsenal went a goal down against Southampton before going on to win 3-1.
Brighton mounted the most impressive comeback as they fought back from two goals down to beat Tottenham 3-2. Three second-half goals were scored in two of those matches and there were four in the other.
Manchester City Win the Most Points From Losing Positions
Newcastle vs Brighton
Both Newcastle and Brighton have won five points after falling behind in a game this season, so second-half goals are on the agenda in this clash. Eddie Howe’s side have scored an average of 0.86 goals in the second half of their league matches, an increase of 0.57 compared to their average number of goals before halftime.
Brighton’s goal output also increases in the second half. They have scored an average of 0.86 goals per first half, but this increases to exactly a goal in the second period.
Wolves vs Manchester City
Manchester City have already fallen behind on four occasions this season. What’s less surprising is they have managed to secure victory in three of those. The exception was the clash with Arsenal at the Etihad, where Pep Guardiola’s side earned a point thanks to a late goal from John Stones.
They face a Wolves side that have lost two games from losing positions, the joint most in the Premier League. Gary O’Neil’s side took the lead against both Aston Villa and Newcastle, succumbing to defeat. Wolves took the lead in their home clash with Manchester City last season, but their inability to hold onto a lead in the 24/25 campaign means that an away win and both teams to score is a good bet.