Forest’s Form Creates New Betting Strategy in Premier League Outrights

Nottingham Forest have been the surprise package in the Premier League this season. However, they now risk missing out on the Champions League.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Forest's Playoff Hopes Take a Hit 

Forest have spent most of the season inside the top five. Yet, they seem to have lost momentum at the worst possible time. They’ve only won one of their last five league games and have now been displaced from the top five.

Monday night’s 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace was the first time since Matchday 15 that they started a game outside the top five. They’ve occupied third spot for most of the season but are now overtaken and have dropped out of the Champions League places.

Nuno Espírito Santo’s men prided themselves on resilience and counter-attacking football. However, their defensive solidity has faltered in recent weeks. Goalkeeper Matz Sels is a contender for the Premier League’s Golden Glove. His case has been worsened by Forest’s inability to keep a clean sheet across their last five league games.

They are not only struggling at the back. Callum Hudson-Odoi has spent time on the sidelines, while the goals have dried up for Chris Wood. A combination of factors is putting Forest’s Champions League hopes at risk.

Monday brought more bad news. Murillo limped off injured, and there are fears he may miss the remainder of the season. Another casualty is the last thing Forest need at this stage of the season.

Hope isn’t all lost for Forest just yet. They’re only two points shy of the top five and still have two of their remaining three games at home. If they can somehow manage to rediscover their form, they’re still within reach of the Champions League spots. 

What Value is there in Betting on Nottingham Forest?

Bookmakers are now firmly backing against Forest finishing in the top five. With Arsenal all but assured of a top-five spot, three other places are up for grabs. Manchester City, Chelsea and Newcastle are the three sides bookmakers believe could take those places.

Forest are somewhat back to where they were early in the season - the underdogs. For much of the past month, they carried the great weight of expectation as the season was coming to an end. The pressure has now eased and they are priced as firm outsiders.

While most have written Forest off, this may be a little premature, largely because of the favourable run-in the East Midlands club have. Their next game comes at home against an already-relegated Leicester. That’s definitely the type of match where they stand a good chance of ending their winless run.

After that, they travel to West Ham, a side who are sitting just above the bottom three. This is another favourable game against one of the league’s weaker sides. They end the campaign at home to Chelsea, which could be crucial.

It seems premature to dismiss Forest at such high odds for a top-four/five finish. Backing them to turn things around could be a value bet. If they can take full advantage of their favourable game against Leicester, the tide could turn on their season. 

Chelsea still have to play Newcastle and Manchester United. Forest shouldn’t be written off just yet as their fixture list is much more favourable. A win this weekend will more than likely put Forest back into the top five, or even the top four. Those big odds certainly won’t be available after the weekend if that’s the case.

For those fancying their demise to continue, there are some generous prices in backing against them. Leicester sit at a huge price ahead of Saturday’s meeting. That could mean there’s huge value in backing some of their top-five rivals to secure their spot.

Another Forest defeat would mean a winner in the Newcastle vs Chelsea game would be all but assured of a top-five spot. It might be wiser to hedge bets on those two rather than betting on Leicester.