Extra Premier League European Place Creates Intriguing Betting Angles

Since finishing eighth in the Premier League could lead to European qualification, four clubs now have even more motivation to end the season well.

Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Why Is There an Extra European Place Potentially Up For Grabs?

There is a high chance that an eighth place finish in the Premier League will guarantee European football next season. However, there is no guarantee.

Usually, the top four in the Premier League qualify for the Champions League. Teams that place fifth and the FA Cup winners go into the Europa League, while the Carabao Cup winners enter the Conference League.

However, now fifth place advances to the Champions League, as well. This means that sixth place goes into the Europa League. Also, if Newcastle finish in the top six and win the Carabao Cup, the Conference League spot will move down to seventh.

There’s also a chance that eighth place could get into Europe, but it depends on the result of the FA Cup final. If Manchester City beat Crystal Palace and finish in the top six, then the Conference League spot will drop to eighth place.

The possible new European spot gives teams an extra reason to finish eighth. The four teams that are in the race are Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton and Fulham. With just two points between them, there is plenty to play for in the Premier League.

Just three games remain, and the potential race for the final spot in Europe is wide open.

Who Could Qualify for Europe Next Season?

Bournemouth are currently in eighth place, and they will keep it if they win their remaining games. Their last three games are against Champions League-chasing Aston Villa, Manchester City and Leicester on the final day.

There’s more value in backing another side since Bournemouth have the toughest remaining games of the four clubs chasing eighth place.

The team with the most promising remaining fixtures is Brentford. Thomas Frank’s side will face relegated Ipswich before a crucial match against Fulham. On the final day, Brentford will play against Wolves, who have nothing to play for.

Since the Bees have the easiest run-in, backing them for their remaining games holds the best value.

Brighton are one point behind Bournemouth, so they are still in the race. Their next matches are against Wolves, then Liverpool, and finally Tottenham.

These games for Brighton may be easier than they seem, since their remaining opponents have nothing to play for. Therefore, there could be some value in backing Brighton for a strong season finish.

Finally, Fulham are the outsiders. Their next match is against Everton at home, and their chances will be dependent on the result against Brentford in the second-to-last game. However, their final match against Man City will be tough. Therefore, there may be value in backing Fulham against Everton, but it’s tough to find value in their remaining fixtures.