We are leaning towards a Brazil victory under their new management.
Best Bets for Ecuador vs Brazil
We expect Brazil to win 2-0.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Ecuador have a promising and rising squad in South American football. They have been impressive in the qualification phase. Currently, they sit second in the standings, eight points behind the World Champions, Argentina.
Although it’s still mathematically possible for them to miss next year’s tournament, that would require a collapse of epic proportions from Sebastián Beccacece’s men. They’ve been in decent form and are unbeaten in their last seven internationals, with four wins and three draws. Want to wager on Ecuador extending their unbeaten run? Stake Promo Code provides access to markets on this in-form South American side.
Brazil hope Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment as head coach will deliver much-needed stability as well as positive results on the pitch. The former Real Madrid boss arrived in Rio de Janeiro last weekend and has already made some surprising decisions with his squad selection.
The Selecao’s last international fixture was a 4-1 thrashing at the hands of their bitter continental rivals, Argentina. That result left them fourth in the standings, still on course for qualification.
However, with four games left to play in the group phase of qualification, both sides will be determined to avoid defeat. A loss at this stage could see them drop in the standings and end up in the precarious seventh-place playoff spot.
Probable Lineups for Ecuador vs Brazil
Ecuador Expected Lineup: Galindez; Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie, Esupinan; Franco, Caicedo, Vite, Guagua; Plata, Valencia
Brazil Expected Lineup: Alison; Wesley, Marquinhos, Ortiz, Vanderson; Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Raphinha, Andreas Pereira, Vinícius Júnior; Cunha
Finding their groove
Brazil aren’t typically a team you’d associate with a lack of attacking prowess, yet they’ve only scored once in each of their last four games.
Eight of the 14 qualifiers they’ve already played have produced fewer than 2.5 goals (57%). All five of their previous meetings with Ecuador ended with the same result, which shows the types of struggles they face with this opposition.
Find the best under 2.5 goals odds on our online betting sites page, where these consistent low-scoring trends create valuable betting opportunities.
The hosts have had similar issues, scoring 13 times in 14 games at an average of 0.92 goals per game. However, their defence has been the best in CONMEBOL qualifying, as no other nation has conceded fewer than their five goals.
History suggests this fixture isn’t a high-scoring one. If Brazil can find form in the final third, it’s unlikely they’ll score more than twice.
- Ecuador vs Brazil Betting Tip 1: Totals - under 2.5 goals 1.55 with Stake
Elation for one side
Considering Ecuador’s shortfalls in the attacking third during qualifying, they could find it difficult to score on Friday morning. The Tri have drawn a blank in five of their last six outings, suggesting another is on the horizon.
Carlo Ancelotti will no doubt want to tighten his defence. With Champions League winner, Marquinhos, on a high after his European triumph, he could marshal his backline to a second consecutive shutout against Ecuador.
That said, the hosts have only blanked once in their last six at the Estadio Monumental in Guayaquil. That was a goalless draw against Paraguay. Furthermore, Beccacece’s charges can take confidence from the fact that Brazil have only kept one clean sheet in their previous five outings.
Yet, it’s worth noting the Samba Kings kept a clean sheet against La Tri in six of their last eight head-to-heads (75%), nudging us to consider only one team to find the net on Friday.
- Ecuador vs Brazil Betting Tip 2: BTTS - no 1.74 with Stake
New manager bounce
Although Ecuador have had a better qualification campaign and currently sit above Brazil in the standings, the visitors are still favourites to walk away with three points this weekend.
The arrival of Ancelotti is likely to shift Brazil’s poor performances by their standards and put on a display worthy of their supporters. The Selecao are unbeaten against Ecuador in their previous 13 meetings (9 wins, 4 draws).
The hosts’ last victory against the Brazilians came in 2004, which is why the five-time World Champions could run out winners again this weekend.
Ecuador are currently in form, but the new manager bounce at Brazil could see them over the line, much to the delight of Samba fans around the world.
- Ecuador vs Brazil Betting Tip 3: 1x2 - Brazil 2.42 with Stake