Arsenal’s opening ten 2025/26 Premier League fixtures may be a serious test, so which team offers the best value to top the PL at Christmas this year?
| 2025/26 Premier League Top at Xmas Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 3.50 |
| Arsenal | 4.00 |
| Manchester City | 4.00 |
| Chelsea | 7.00 |
| Newcastle United | 17.00 |
| Manchester United | 21.00 |
| Tottenham | 29.00 |
| Aston Villa | 34.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Will 2025 Club World Cup exploits take their toll on Chelsea and Manchester City?
Chelsea have ended their extended 2024/25 season as Club World Cup and Conference League winners. The new Blues boss, Enzo Maresca, has had a successful first 12 months in charge.
However, how does this affect the Blues’ ambitions for the 2025/26 Premier League campaign? After their final 2024/25 PL game against Nottingham Forest, the Blues have played many matches in June and July.
Their Club World Cup final win over PSG happened on 13th July – just five weeks before the start of the new Premier League season. It seems unlikely that the Blues will have enough downtime to be in top condition for their season opener at home against Crystal Palace on 17th August.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are in a similar situation. Although they were knocked out of the Club World Cup at the last 16 stage, they only returned to Manchester in early July after a busy June.
However, they will have two more weeks of rest than Chelsea, and this could make the difference. Additionally, City have an easier start to the new 2025/26 season. In their opening ten fixtures, they will only face two teams that finished inside last season’s top six.
Who appears best-placed to top the PL this Christmas?
Normally, Liverpool and Arsenal would be the expected main contenders for the Premier League lead by Christmas this year. However, Arsenal have been given one of the toughest starts to the season.
The Gunners will begin their PL campaign with a trip to Old Trafford before facing newly-promoted Leeds and defending champions, Liverpool. They also face Manchester City and Newcastle in their first six games. It’s quite possible that Mikel Arteta’s men will be playing catch-up even after their opening six or seven fixtures.
Liverpool’s schedule isn’t much better. They face Newcastle and Arsenal in their first three fixtures. They also face Chelsea, rivals Manchester United, and Aston Villa in their opening ten games.
Ironically, Chelsea may have the easiest fixture schedule for the start of the 2025/26 season. The Blues will not face a side that finished in the top six last season until game week 7, when they host Liverpool. However, this is their only fixture against a top-six outfit in their first ten games.
In football, winning is often a habit. If Maresca and his players can get enough rest, they might be able to continue their Club World Cup momentum and start the 2025/26 season well.
According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings for the Premier League’s Fantasy Football, Thomas Frank’s Tottenham have the easiest set of ten fixtures to begin 2025/26. Aside from a trip to Manchester City in August, Spurs will face two of the newly promoted teams, as well as several teams that finished in the bottom half last season.
In summary, despite not having much downtime from their Club World Cup triumph, Chelsea could be the value pick to lead the league on 25th December. The betting markets give them a 12.5% chance to do so, but their recent successes could give them a winning mindset for next season.
Tottenham seem like a great option for a serious outside bet, as the betting markets currently give them just a 2.44% chance of topping the table at Christmas.
However, it’s not impossible if Frank can have an immediate impact, and Kudus along with potentially Gibbs-White, hit the ground running. Their early fixture schedule is very favourable and could put them firmly in the mix ahead of the festive season.