The Champions League has always been entertaining. However, the average number of goals has already increased compared to last term.
| Champions League over 2.5 goals market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid vs Juventus | 1.61 |
| Kairat Almaty vs Pafos | 2.20 |
| Union Saint-Gilliose vs Inter Milan | 1.73 |
| FC Copenhagen vs Borussia Dortmund | 1.80 |
| Newcastle vs Benfica | 1.73 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Capitalising on the Champions League goal surge
Last season, the Champions League saw 618 goals in 189 games. It’s renowned for producing moments of brilliance, especially in the attacking third. As impressive as the average of 3.26 goals per game was, this season’s numbers have already surpassed that total.
However, there’ve been only two matchdays, which is why it might be a good idea to capitalise on the goalfest now. To put that number into perspective, the competition’s highest goal average before last season was 3.24 goals per game in 2019/20.
It’s worth noting that the competition saw over 400 goals scored in the past. However, those were under its old format, when there were two group phases. Since there are no return games in this new format, clubs are more likely to attack rather than play cautiously.
As we approach Matchday 3, the current average number of goals for this season is 3.58 per game. Certain clubs, such as Arsenal, have been very strong defensively, having not conceded a goal yet. Therefore, it’s best to look at other teams for value.
Real Madrid vs Juventus: Real’s enviable frontline to continue goal spree
These two are among the most experienced in Champions League history. The hosts have played 505 games to date, while the Old Lady have been involved in 313 fixtures. Therefore, it’s unsurprising that Los Blancos have scored a staggering 1111 goals so far.
Considering their entire history, they have an average of 2.2 goals per game. Juve are quite far behind. They have scored a total of 497 goals, which equates to an average of 1.59 goals per game. However, the outlook on goals is quite similar in the current season.
The Spanish giants are the second-most lethal team in the competition, as they’ve scored seven goals in two games. Kylian Mbappe has netted five of those and has scored in his last 10 appearances for club and country. Madrid’s last four outings across all competitions have delivered 22 goals, with all fixtures producing over four goals.
Juve have been efficient in attack, having netted six times in their two games. However, they conceded six in their opening two matchdays. The Italian club have an xG of 3.3 and an xGA of 3.2, which means that this game will see plenty of goals.
Kairat Almaty vs Pafos: Attacking freedom expected in UCL clash
Kazakhstan outfit Kirat Almaty are playing in the Champions League for the first time. They qualified after winning the 2024 Kazakhstan Premier League and going through the qualifying rounds. However, they’ve had a poor start, losing both opening fixtures.
They're struggling to score goals, having only managed one To make matters worse, their defence is not any better. They’ve conceded nine goals, which is an average of 4.5 goals per game. Their xGA is currently 7.2.
While their attacking efforts are poor in Europe, they’ve netted 51 goals in 24 games back home, an average of 2.12 goals per match. Perhaps facing another newcomer to the competition is the ideal opportunity for the hosts to express themselves.
Pafos won the Cypriot First Division for the first time, and went through Maccabi Tel Aviv and Dynamo Kyiv to secure their spot here. With one draw and one defeat, they have a better record than the hosts, but conceding goals has been a problem for the Cypriots.
Their xGA in the competition so far is 6.0. However, like their hosts, they are currently topping their domestic league. The visitors scored 12 goals in their six league matches. Facing another team at their level could lead to a goalfest.
Union Saint-Gilliose vs Inter Milan: Inter to concede plenty at home
Union Saint-Gilliose recently ended a 90-year drought to win the Belgian Pro League. As a result, they find themselves in the league phase of the Champions League for the first time.
They’ve had a decent start, having secured a win and suffered a defeat, and they are certainly capable of causing upsets. They already have an xG of 3.9 and an xGA of 4.9. Also, Les Unionistes have conceded eight goals across their two matchdays.
David Hubert’s charges let in four at home to Newcastle. However, it’s worth pointing out that the club are using Lotto Park in Anderlecht as their home base. When they host Inter in the next gameweek, the Italians will be keen to score many goals.
The Nerazzurri currently have the most efficient attack in Italy, with 17 goals in six league fixtures. They’ve been slightly subdued in the Champions League, as they’ve conceded five goals in two games.
Inter’s xG is 5.2, so there’s a huge possibility that they score plenty of goals in Belgium. Three of their last four games in all competitions saw more than two goals scored.
FC Copenhagen vs Borussia Dortmund: Competition's highest scorers to continue with front-foot tactics
The hosts are yet to win a Champions League fixture this term. They’ve secured just a single point in a 2-2 draw with Bayer Leverkusen. From an attacking perspective, Copenhagen are the second-best in the Danish Superliga.
Jacob Neestrup’s men scored 25 goals and conceded 15 in 11 league games. They have the ability to cause trouble on the European stage, which is something Dortmund must be aware of. The Lions have an xG of 2.9 in the competition, while their xGA is 3.0.
That is good news for the travelling party. Having scored eight goals in the competition, Dortmund are joint top-scorers alongside Bayern Munich. BVB netted four goals against Juventus on Matchday 1 to earn a point.
With an xG of 2.7 and an xGA of 2.9, this Dortmund side are able to find the net. However, their defence is very vulnerable.
Newcastle vs Benfica: Goalfest at St James’ Park
St James’ Park will be loud and energetic, as it always is for European matches. This time, they’re hosting Jose Mourinho, whom they are familiar with. The Magpies netted four goals against Belgian champions Union Saint-Gilloise on Matchday 2.
Five goals in two games have given them an xG of 3.9 in the Champions League. With Nick Woltemade excelling in the centre forward role, Newcastle are a huge threat. The German is tall as well, giving manager Eddie Howe's team another option from set pieces.
Woltemade has scored three goals across three games for his club, and he found the net for his country during the international break. The visitors might find it difficult to stop him, as their defence conceded four goals in their two outings.
The Eagles have an xG and xGA of 2.2, an indication that they are dangerous in attack. However, it remains uncertain how they adapt under Mourinho and whether he will opt to for his tight defence strategy.
Having scored 13 in eight Primeira Liga games, the visitors have shown potential to score goals. With Newcastle’s xGA of 2.0, there is hope for the goals to flow in this match.