Sunderland, Wolves, Crystal Palace, and Man Utd are among the clubs set to be most affected by the tournament, which won’t finish until mid-January.
| Premier League Outright Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Man Utd to finish in the bottom half | 5.00 |
| Crystal Palace to finish in the bottom half | 3.00 |
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Which clubs will lose the most players?
A total of 45 Premier League players are likely to be called up for the Africa Cup of Nations. Morocco will host the 24-team event, which will last four weeks. This period overlaps with one of the busiest times on the English football calendar.
Clubs are expected to keep their players until 15 December. However, after that point, African players will join their national teams and miss the crucial Premier League fixtures over the holidays. It’s worth noting that any players who are involved in the competition until the semi-final stage will miss six league fixtures, as well as potential domestic cup games.
Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Algeria are the favourites to reach the last four. That could create significant problems for several EPL clubs. Star players such as Mohamed Salah and Bryan Mbeumo are among those who will participate.
Sunderland, who have performed surprisingly well, are set to lose the most players, potentially seven, during AFCON. However, they should all be available for the crucial Tyne-Wear derby against Newcastle on 14 December.
Wolves, who are currently at the bottom of the table, are also likely to be without five players. Meanwhile, Burnley, Crystal Palace, and Nottingham Forest may lose four players to AFCON.
Arsenal, Chelsea, and Leeds United may be the only Premier League clubs that won’t lose any players due to the competition. Meanwhile, Aston Villa, Brighton, Brentford, Everton, Bournemouth, and Newcastle are also expected to see little disruption.
The Premier League betting opportunities created by AFCON
There may be value in betting against several Premier League clubs during the tournament itself. AFCON is likely to put a real strain on Sunderland’s squad. There’s big potential for their form to drop over the festive period, with their defence set to be worst hit.
With some players potentially missing 16% of the Premier League season, the tournament could also impact the outright markets. With the middle of the division so congested, a bad run of form during AFCON will impact final finishing positions.
Man Utd are one team that could really suffer, with star player Bryan Mbeumo representing Cameroon. The 26-year-old is his club’s top scorer with five EPL goals. The attacking output of Ruben Amorim’s side will suffer while he’s away.
Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui will also be at the tournament. The trio will definitely miss tough games against Aston Villa and Newcastle. They’re also at risk of being out for January’s Manchester derby, if their nations progress to the last four.
Man Utd already rank among the bottom six teams for xG against, and are only three points above Bournemouth in 14th. If the goals dry up, they could lose many places during AFCON. As an outside bet, they look to offer value to finish in the bottom half, with an implied probability of 20%.
The same goes for Crystal Palace, who are given a 33.3% chance of a bottom-half finish. They could be without key man Ismaila Sarr for six Premier League games during the tournament. The Senegalese star has already scored eight times for the Eagles in all competitions this term.
With up to three other players potentially missing during AFCON, existing concerns about Palace’s squad depth will deepen. They also have EFL Cup and Conference League matches to play while their African contingent is away.