One goal conceded in seven games. Spain's watertight defence faces Messi and Argentina's bid for back-to-back World Cups at the MetLife Stadium.
Best bets for Spain vs Argentina
- Spain to win to nil at odds of 3.50 with Easybet
- Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goal or assist at odds of 2.00 with Easybet
- Draw (1st half) at odds of 1.95 with Easybet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Argentina
- Goalscorers prediction: Spain: Oyarzabal, Yamal
Sunday evening’s World Cup final pits Spain against defending champions Argentina at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. 39-year-old Lionel Messi is chasing back-to-back world titles in what’s certain to be his last World Cup appearance.
Luis de la Fuente’s Spanish side arrive in New York state unbeaten in their last 37 competitive matches. La Roja have shipped just one goal throughout the entire tournament. Their path to the final has been largely serene. They topped their group, shut out Portugal and overcame Belgium before a statement semi-final win over France.
Fitness-wise, the Spaniards are as close to full strength as possible. De la Fuente is still without the services of Yeremy Pino and Victor Munoz, but this is nothing new. Spain have a settled starting XI, anchored by Rodri and sparked by Lamine Yamal. De la Fuente is unlikely to make any changes.
Argentina’s defence of their World Cup crown has been rather more chaotic. Two of their knockout wins have required extra time. They also battled back from two goals down to overcome Egypt in a remarkable last-gasp turnaround. Their semi-final win was equally impressive, battling back from a goal down to overcome Thomas Tuchel’s England in Atlanta.
As it stands, Lionel Scaloni has a fully fit squad available for Sunday’s final. His only dilemmas are selection calls: Giuliano Simeone or the recalled De Paul, while match-winner Lautaro Martínez is also pushing hard.
Probable lineups for Spain vs Argentina
Spain expected lineup: Simon, Cubarsi, Porro, Laporte, Cucurella, Ruiz, Rodri, Pedri, Yamal, Williams, Oyarzabal
Argentina expected lineup: E. Martinez, Molina, Otamendi, Romero, L. Martinez, Simeone, Paredes, Fernandez, Mac Allister, Messi, Alvarez
Argentina to draw a blank in the face of Spain’s defensive wall
No defence at this World Cup compares to Spain’s. Only Belgium’s quarter-final consolation effort has prevented the Spaniards from registering seven clean sheets in as many games.
They even managed to restrict the tournament’s most potent attack - France - to just 0.30 xG in their semi-final win. Although Argentina have found the net in every game so far at this tournament, they haven’t faced a defensive structure like this.
If Rodri can cut off Lionel Messi’s supply in the same way he limited Mbappe’s influence, Spain could have a major advantage. At a 28.57% probability, backing La Roja to win with a clean sheet offers excellent value.
- Spain vs Argentina Bet 1: Spain to win to nil at odds of 3.50 with Easybet
Value on Oyarzabal to provide a goal contribution
Mikel Oyarzabal has been Spain’s leading scorer in the tournament. He has scored five goals in seven matches, with one assist to his name. That’s six goal contributions in seven matches at a strike rate of 85.71%.
However, the betting markets believe there is only a 50% chance of him scoring or setting up a goal in the final. This would appear to hugely undervalue Oyarzabal’s role in this Spanish side.
He’s the man for the big occasion, having scored Spain’s winner in the Euro 2024 final. With Nico Williams and Yamal dragging defenders wide, the central spaces will belong to Oyarzabal. This is the best value bet from our trio of Spain vs Argentina predictions.
- Spain vs Argentina Bet 2: Mikel Oyarzabal anytime goal or assist at odds of 2.00 with Easybet
Back the first 45 minutes to be a slow burn
World Cup finals are cagey at the best of times. Six of the last ten finals have featured just two or fewer goals in 90 minutes. Sunday’s final has all the makings of a cagey affair.
Spain’s knockout wins over Portugal and Belgium hinged on 90th and 88th minute winners from Mikel Merino. La Roja’s system is patient by design, as it seeks to suffocate the opposition both physically and technically.
Argentina are counter-punchers by nature too. In their semi-final with England, they tried all they could to slow the pace of the game with minor fouls during the opening 45 minutes. The markets agree the first period should be a tight encounter. We can back a tied first 45 at a probability of just 51.28%.
- Spain vs Argentina Bet 3: Draw (1st half) at odds of 1.95 with Easybet