According to the World Cup 2026 winner odds, Spain are the current favourites. We explore all of the main contenders for what will be one of the biggest betting events in the world.
The outright odds highlight the chances of every team that will be in North America next summer. Aside from the World Cup 2026 favourites, the potential surprise packages will also be covered. We’ll finish with some practical betting tips for the tournament.
Latest World Cup 2026 winner odds: Top favourites
The odds for who will win World Cup 2026 will move frequently in the months before the tournament. The final draw will have some impact. Injuries, managerial changes and the results of the final play-off matches could also lead to shifts. Different bookmakers may also show slightly different prices. Bettors should always check the current odds with licensed operators in their countries.
| Team | Odds | Implied probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 5.5 | ~18% | In-form, recent Euro win |
| England | 7 | ~14% | Deep squad, semi-finalist |
| France | 8 | ~13% | Consistent contender |
| Brazil | 9 | ~11% | Young core, historic power |
| Argentina | 9 | ~11% | Titleholder |
| Portugal | 11 | ~9% | Attacking options |
| Germany | 15 | ~7% | Improved defence |
| Netherlands | 21 | ~5% | Value outsider |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Analysing the main World Cup 2026 contenders
The 2026 World Cup winner odds are influenced by several factors. Pre-tournament form and squad quality are among the most significant. Historical performance can also have an impact on prices.
Spain
Under current boss Luis de la Fuente, Spain have adapted their usual possession-based style. They are still strong on the ball, but they also attack quickly on the flanks thanks to key wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal.
They were stunned by Morocco in the round-of-16 at the last World Cup, but bounced back to win Euro 2024. One potential weakness may be a defence that can be vulnerable. However, La Roja justify their current price thanks to their deep squad and strong form over the past two years.
England
After a slow start, new boss Thomas Tuchel has begun shaping England into an aggressive, high-intensity side. Harry Kane remains the main goal threat, while the Three Lions rely on their impressive depth in the other attacking roles. That could be key in an expanded 48-team tournament.
However, England haven’t won a major trophy since 1966. Also, they were knocked out at the quarter-final stage at Qatar 2022. Their current odds may seem short, but they’re a solid each-way option, having reached the last two Euros finals.
France
Under Didier Deschamps, France have often favoured a pragmatic approach rather than developing a clear playing style. Their current team are structured around Kylian Mbappe, who has an exceptional World Cup record. The Real Madrid striker led his national team to the title at Russia 2018 and the final in Qatar.
France progressed easily through a weak qualifying group, but their defensive flaws were exposed by Spain in the recent Nations League. They also underperformed at Euro 2024, scoring just once aside from own goals and penalties. With Deschamps potentially having stayed too long, France appear too short at their current price.
Argentina
Defending champions Argentina aim to claim back-to-back glory after their dramatic victory over France in the 2022 final. They also won the 2024 edition of Copa America and are among the World Cup 2026 favourites. Lionel Scaloni continues to employ a flexible structure to get the best out of the legendary Leo Messi.
However, it’s a big ask to expect a player who will turn 39 at the tournament to carry this team to another title. The strongest teams should have joy against the Argentina defence, and they are too short at their current price.
World Cup 2026 dark horses and long‑shot candidates
Most major tournaments see a dark horse emerge as surprise contenders. The term refers to teams that don’t feature among the favourites, but have the potential to challenge. With fewer backers than the top nations, betting on dark horses to reach the last four can often provide better value.
Norway – outsider at around 30.00
Having not qualified for a major tournament since 2000, Norway are not considered among the outright World Cup 2026 favourites.
However, after a stunning qualifying campaign that saw them score seven times against Italy, Stale Solbakken’s side have momentum. They have arguably the most clinical finisher in the world in the shape of Erling Haaland. If he fires, Norway could be good value to reach the last eight, or even the last four.
Colombia – outsider at around 40.00
A lack of quality in some areas helps explain why Colombia are not among the favourites. They’ve also never made it past the quarter-final stage at a World Cup.
However, they have an experienced squad, and can take confidence from their run to the 2024 Copa America final. They can count on many attacking talents, including Luis Diaz, James Rodriguez and Jhon Duran. Colombia seem to offer value to at least match their best-ever World Cup showing in this tournament.
Belgium – outsider at around 50.00
Belgium have featured higher up in the World Cup outright odds at recent tournaments. The sense that their golden generation is past its prime means that isn’t the case this time around.
However, they do have some emerging talents, such as Jeremy Doku. More experienced players including Thibaut Courtois, Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are also still performing at a high level. With much less pressure in 2026, they could offer value as an outside bet.
England’s chances to win the World Cup 2026
1966 remains the only time England have won the World Cup. Since then, fourth-place finishes in 1990 and 2018 are as good as it has got for the Three Lions. A quarter-final exit to France in 2022 was the worst of their four major tournament showings under Gareth Southgate’s leadership.
Tuchel is keen to build a clearer tactical approach, with even Real Madrid star Jude Bellingham no longer a guaranteed starter. That’s partly thanks to the impressive depth that England have in attacking areas. The likes of Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Morgan Rogers, Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka are also strong candidates for starting roles. The Three Lions are definite contenders to win the 2026 World Cup.
Several factors could work against England, however. With hot conditions guaranteed, it’s questionable whether Tuchel’s high-intensity style is a practical approach. A failure to make a World Cup final in 60 years also suggests they don’t offer value to win the tournament outright. However, that could potentially change if the draw opens up and other leading candidates are knocked out.
How to bet on World Cup 2026 winner odds wisely
Bettors should remember that punts in outright markets can tie up funds for months. The World Cup winner will not be known until the final in New Jersey next July. Planning is therefore required when deciding when to bet on such markets.
- Understand the new format for the 2026 World Cup, which will involve an extra knockout round.
- Don’t overreact to the group stage draw, given there is less potential for shock exits with most third-placed teams also progressing to the new round-of-32.
- Do consider potential knockout paths, which will have a bigger impact on the World Cup winner odds.
- Consider backing at least two or three teams at different odds to spread risk in the World Cup 2026 winner market.
- Use related markets such as “to reach semi‑final” or “stage of elimination” when backing teams you view as potential dark horses.
- Track injuries, as many nations have one or two key players who are pivotal to their chances.
- Plan an exit strategy: if your team reach the quarter‑finals or semi‑finals at short odds, consider hedging bets or backing a strong opponent to lock in profit.
- Avoid overreacting to friendly results, when many managers may be experimenting with tactics or giving fringe players opportunities.
World Cup 2026 winner betting FAQs
- Which pre-tournament events will have an impact on the World Cup 2026 winner odds?
December’s draw will not determine who will win the World Cup, but it will lead to some small shifts in the market. There will then be an international break in March, which will be another opportunity to see how teams are shaping up. Final squad announcements in the weeks leading up to the tournament will also be something to keep a close eye on.
- What impact will the draw have on the World Cup 2026 winner odds?
With the favourites set to be kept apart as a result of seeding, those sides should all progress from their groups. However, a more favourable draw will still improve their chances of finishing first, which may mean an easier knockout path.
There are many variables, however, and the draw alone is only likely to result in minor outright winner price shifts. It will have a bigger impact on markets such as the Golden Boot, with some genuine minnows involved in this expanded tournament.
- How many teams should I bet on to win the 2026 World Cup?
With a record 48 teams taking part at this World Cup, picking the winner will not be easy. Hedging your bets and backing at least two or three teams may be the smart play. Using each-way or “to reach semi-final” markets can also help to reduce the chance of no returns.
- Is it better to back the favourites or pick dark horses in the winner market?
There have been surprise winners such as Denmark and Greece at the Euros. However, the World Cup tends to be won by one of the favourites. Only eight teams have ever won it. Therefore, it’s advisable to consider other markets when backing dark horses.