Our betting expert shares his predictions for this second Nations League fixture. A win would extend Spain’s Group 3 lead.
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Best bets for Spain vs Croatia
- Anytime goalscorer - Ferran Torres at odds of 1.87 on Betway
- 1x2 & Totals - Spain & Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.94 on Betway
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 2.16 on Betway
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Spain 2-1 Croatia
- Goalscorers prediction: Spain: Ferran Torres, Lamine Yamal - Croatia: Petar Sucic
Spain are on top of the world at the moment, holding the World Cup and European Championship titles. They’re now aiming to add the Nations League to their ever-growing trophy cabinet. With the start they’ve had, Spain are in a strong position to go all the way and conquer the rest of the continent.
La Roja’s first match saw them take an early lead against England at Wembley last Saturday. However, that advantage disappeared, and they had to mount a second-half comeback after going into the break 2-1 down. Luis De La Fuente’s men showed exactly why they’re world champions with a 3-2 win away to the Three Lions.
The result left them top of the group going into Matchday 2 against the other side that has three points. Croatia impressed on matchday 1 against Czechia. They walked away with maximum points in a 2-1 victory. That win also kicked off Slaven Bilic’s second stint as national head coach.
The result was significant, given the quality of the group. Bilic oversaw a 14-game unbeaten run during his first tenure. He’d love to do something similar with this team but they face an uphill task against La Roja.
Probable lineups for Spain vs Croatia
Spain expected lineup: Simon, Pubill, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella, Rodri, Luiz, Yamal, Olmo, Williams, Torres
Croatia expected lineup: Livakovic, Stanisic, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, L. Sucic, P. Sucic, Ivanovic, Budimir
World Cup final scorer in form
De La Fuente has plenty of attacking options, but Ferran Torres has earned his place given his recent form. He scored 16 goals in 33 La Liga appearances for Barcelona last season. This prompted Paris Saint-Germain to secure his signature in the summer.
Torres has taken to Ligue 1. He’s bagged four goals in five league matches for the French champions. He also grabbed a hat-trick in his only Champions League appearance for the Parisians.
Torres played 55 minutes against England and missed two big chances, but had an xG (expected goals) of 1.06. If the manager trusts him to start against Croatia, he’ll likely find the back of the net. Torres has scored five goals in his recent four outings for both club and country. As a result, we're backing him to score on Tuesday night.
- Spain vs Croatia Betting Tip 1: Anytime goalscorer - Ferran Torres at odds of 1.87 on Betway
39 to become 40
Spain have put together a remarkable run. They're now unbeaten across their last 39 internationals inside 90 minutes. La Roja won 29 of those fixtures, and haven’t lost on home soil since 2022. Their last defeat in Seville was in2018, diminishing any hopes of a Croatia upset here.
The Vatreni have won three of their last four outings, but struggle against the world’s best. Seven of Croatia’s last eight defeats came against teams ranked in the top ten. To make matters worse for the visitors, their only away head-to-head in this competition was a 6-0 defeat.
The home side won each of the last three head-to-heads, although two went beyond 90 minutes. Spain have faced just 29 shots in their last 16 matches, which suggests the visitors could struggle to breach their defence. This makes a low-scoring Spain win the value here.
- Spain vs Croatia Betting Tip 2: 1x2 & Totals - Spain & Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.94 on Betway
Croatia could find the net in Seville
While Spain certainly have a defence that’s difficult to break down, they are not impenetrable. England scored two goals on Saturday. This should give Bilic’s men some encouragement. With six of Croatia’s last seven goals against Spain coming after halftime, we expect that trend to continue after De La Fuente makes changes.
Bilic’s troops will back themselves to score here, especially after scoring eight goals in their last five games. They’re averaging 1.6 goals per 90, which means they should generate enough to worry the hosts. To put their recent outing into perspective, Croatia recorded 1.84 xG, exactly double Czechia’s 0.92.
Two of Spain’s last four outings saw both teams score, while five of Croatia’s previous six produced goals at both ends. With both sides showing a recent tendency to concede, we expect that pattern to continue in Seville.
- Spain vs Croatia Betting Tip 3: BTTS - Yes at odds of 2.16 on Betway