NFL 2024 AFC South Analysis, Preview & Predictions: Who will win rising division?

The Tennessee Titans adopted a bold strategy this offseason, implying that they are all in on a postseason run with inexperienced quarterback Will Levis. After firing head coach Mike Vrabel and hiring first-time head coach Brian Callahan as his successor, they made a host of win-now roster changes.

Gone are stalwarts Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, and Denico Autry. In their place, the Titans made significant upgrades, especially at wide receiver, by signing Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million deal and adding Tyler Boyd via free agency.

They also bolstered their backfield with Tony Pollard on a three-year, $21.8 million contract, and shored up the offensive line with center Lloyd Cushenberry III on a four-year, $50 million deal.

Additionally, they strengthened their defense by acquiring cornerback L'Jarius Sneed from the Chiefs and locking him in with a four-year, $76.4 million extension. With these new weapons at his disposal, Levis could be poised for a breakout year, but there are legitimate questions that second-year quarterback needs to answer this season after ranking dead-last in pass completion last time out.

Their defense is also expected to be a shambles. The loss of Autry is a significant one, as the tackle anchored the Titans' defensive line for years and led the club in sacks last season. All in all, this could be a rough season for the Titans under Brian Callahan.

Indianapolis exceeded many expectations in Year 1 of the Shane Steichen era, but they seem primed for a step back in 2024. At first glance, their schedule appears favorable, ranking sixth overall, with a relatively easy stretch from Week 13 to Week 17. However, they have only one game where they'll have more rest than their opponent and five games against teams coming off extra rest.

Another factor contributing to their potential regression is the departure of quarterback Gardner Minshew to the Las Vegas Raiders, once again handing over the charge in the hands of rookie Anthony Richardson.

The 22-year-old showed promise in his brief four-game stint before suffering a season-ending AC joint sprain, but questions remain about his durability and passing accuracy over an entire season.

Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor's health will be crucial for Richardson's success after he was limited to just ten games last season. Zach Moss rescued the Colts’ backfield with the best season of his career, but he’s now gone. Without a solid backup, an injury to Taylor would heap even more pressure on the young quarterback, potentially leading to an ugly season.

The Jaguars started last season on fire, going 8-3, but then stumbled, losing five of their last six games. Their sole victory during that stretch came against a Panthers team that managed just two wins all season. This cold streak caused them to miss out on the division title, which went to a Texans team that's now even stronger.

The biggest question heading into this season is Trevor Lawrence. The No. 1 overall pick from the 2021 draft failed to build on his impressive 2022 campaign, which included a Pro Bowl appearance and a thrilling playoff comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers. Lawrence started strong in 2023 but hit a wall, regressing significantly in the second half of the season.

With the acquisition of first-round pick Brian Thomas and veteran Gabe Davis, Jaguars should post big offensive numbers. The Jaguars also signed center Mitch Morse to shore up their struggling offensive line.

Jacksonville hired defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen to replace Mike Caldwell, which is a significant enough upgrade, and free-agent addition Arik Armstead will boost the defense.

Although the Jaguars offense looks strong, the defense needs major improvement. They may not have enough in their locker to beat the Texans for top spot, but a playoff spot is certainly likely.

As the reigning AFC South champions, the Houston Texans enjoyed tremendous success last season. They were the biggest surprise of the 2023 season, and instead of resting on their laurels, they significantly improved during the offseason.

General manager Nick Caserio had a playoff-caliber roster and bolstered it with multiple starters, including three recent Pro Bowl players. On offense, they added a reliable running back in Joe Mixon and an elite wide receiver in Stefon Diggs through separate trades. These additions will help 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud make substantial strides this season, paving the way for another AFC South championship.

Houston didn't just focus on offense; they also made significant upgrades to their pass rush. The Texans signed a four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher in Danielle Hunter, defensive end Denico Autry, and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who's coming off his most productive year.

Additionally, Houston drafted third-round offensive tackle Blake Fisher to provide extra protection for C.J. Stroud. This season, the Texans will prove they are the real deal and could well finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.