Our betting expert expects a slow start to a relatively low-scoring game, which should ultimately be won by Barcelona.
Best bets for Valencia vs Barcelona
- First half - Draw at odds of 2.60 on Betway
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.73 on Betway
- Barcelona to win at odds of 1.85 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Valencia 1-2 Barcelona
- Goalscorers prediction - Valencia: Javi Guerra - Barcelona: Raphinha, Dani Olmo
After scoring two late goals to win 4-3 at Real Sociedad last time out, Valencia are still in European contention. Carlos Corberan’s side have also beaten Girona and Athletic Club in their last five matches, climbing into mid-table. They need to win this game to stand any chance of qualifying for the Conference League.
There’s nothing at stake for Barcelona, who wrapped up the title with a 2-0 win over Real Madrid in El Clasico. They lost their next game against Alaves, but bounced back with a 3-1 victory over Real Betis last Sunday. Hansi Flick’s team will finish on 97 points if they win this match, which would be their highest tally in 13 years.
Probable lineups for Valencia vs Barcelona
Valencia expected lineup: Dimitrievski, Vazquez, Pepelu, Tarrega, Correia, Ugrinic, Rodriguez, Rioja, Guerra, Lopez, Duro
Barcelona expected lineup: Szczesny, Cancelo, Martin, Cubarsi, Kounde, Bernal, Pedri, Olmo, Gavi, Raphinha, Ferran
First half to finish all square
There has been very little action in the first halves of Valencia’s home fixtures this season. Incredibly, only nine goals have been scored before the break across the 18 league matches at Mestalla. 62% of those games were level at the interval.
Barcelona have often started slowly on the road. They’ve drawn or been behind at half-time in 61% of their away league fixtures. Their first-half goal difference is just +3 on their travels.
Those trends suggest this encounter is likely to be competitive in the opening period. Valencia shouldn’t lack motivation as they chase an unlikely European place, having only secured safety last weekend. Backing the first half to finish all square looks appealing, with an implied probability of 38.5%.
- Valencia vs Barcelona Bet 1: First half - Draw at odds of 2.60 on Betway
Final weekend clash to serve up few goals
With Lamine Yamal sidelined, Barcelona’s recent matches have not been quite as entertaining. They failed to score for the first time this season in La Liga in their last away game. Six of their previous seven matches have ended with three or fewer goals in total.
Some defensive improvements have also contributed to that. Barca have let in just three goals across their last six league fixtures. They now boast the joint-best defensive record in the Spanish top flight, with 0.89 goals conceded per game.
Valencia tend to play cautiously when they come up against the stronger sides. They’ve only managed to score twice in seven meetings with top-four opponents so far this term.
Given that, backing under 3.5 goals appears to offer value. That has been a winning bet in 83% of Valencia’s home matches in La Liga.
- Valencia vs Barcelona Bet 2: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.73 on Betway
Champions to end the season with a win
Barcelona’s recent defeat at Alaves came only 48 hours after their title parade and celebrations. They fielded a weakened lineup for that match, with many changes from El Clasico. They should be much fresher at Mestalla this weekend, with Flick expected to field a strong side.
The visitors have won 12 of their last 13 league matches overall. While they are only playing for pride, Barca may still have too much for Valencia, who they beat 6-0 in September. All of the previous five meetings between the clubs have been won by the Catalan giants.
Los Che’s record of seven defeats from seven matches against top-four opponents this term also points to an away victory. They’ve collected just one point against sides currently in the top six. Given that, Barca offer value to win this game, with an implied probability of 54.1%.
- Valencia vs Barcelona Bet 3: Barcelona to win at odds of 1.85 on Betway