Germany’s opening four matches in League A2 have yielded just five goals in total. However, the Serbs concede two goals per game on average.
Best bets for Serbia vs Germany
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.77 with Betway
- Both teams to score (no) at odds of 2.00 with Betway
- Florian Wirtz 1+ assist at odds of 2.62 with Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Serbia 0-2 Germany
- Goalscorers prediction: Germany: Havertz, Nmecha
Serbia play their penultimate 2026/27 Nations League group game in League A2 on Friday night, with Germany the visitors to Belgrade.
There’s no doubt this campaign has been a difficult one for Veljko Paunovic’s men. They have failed to get a point on the board as yet and concede two goals per game on average. Serbia have now lost their last six games in all competitions, with one victory since the end of last year.
Two regulars in the Serbian squad will miss out this week. Sasa Lukic and Nemanja Maksimovic are both suspended for the visit of the Germans. Still, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic are both available. Their return is significant, as neither striker featured in any of Serbia’s four Nations League matches.
Germany boss Jurgen Klopp has named a 24-man squad for the trip to Serbia on Friday. Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry will miss out through injury. There’s a recall for Niclas Fullkrug after netting nine Bundesliga goals in eight appearances.
Klopp has also reserved a senior call-up for 17-year-old starlet Wael Mohya. Germany go into this match-up knowing anything less than four points from their two remaining games will consign them to a relegation play-off berth.
Probable lineups for Serbia vs Germany
Serbia expected lineup: V. Milinkovic-Savic, Nedeljkovic, S. Pavlovic, Erakovic, Kostic, S. Milinkovic-Savic, A. Stankovic, Samardzic, Tadic, Vlahovic, Mitrovic
Germany expected lineup: ter Stegen, Anton, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt, Kimmich, A. Pavlovic, El Mala, Wirtz, Nmecha, Havertz
Value on a relatively quiet night in Belgrade
Germany have scored three goals in four Nations League games. All four of those outings stayed under the Over 3.5 Goals line.
Their group matches produced two, nil, one and two goals. Three of their four World Cup games also finished with three or fewer goals scored.
Serbia have also managed just three goals in four group outings. Only one of their last 12 games has featured four or more. However, Serbia have shipped 13 goals in their last five. Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic are both back from absence, which will naturally aid their offensive output. However, we expect Serbia to prioritise keeping Germany quiet rather than committing too many players forward.
Klopp’s men won the reverse fixture 2-0. We can back three or fewer goals on Friday night at a 56.5% implied probability. In our view, the likelihood sits closer to the 70% mark. This makes it the top value play from our Serbia vs Germany predictions.
- Serbia vs Germany Bet 1: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.77 with Betway
Backing a possible clean sheet for Germany
Germany have conceded one goal in their last three Nations League matches. Only two opponents have managed to score against them throughout the group stage.
Serbia have underperformed their expected goals by 7.4 in this competition. Three different players have scored their three goals. They also rank third lowest for touches in the opposition area among League A’s 16 sides. Nemanja Maksimovic and Sasa Lukic are both suspended.
Mitrovic and Vlahovic do return to a forward line that badly needs them. Serbia were kept out entirely in the reverse fixture. With Mitrovic and Vlahovic back, this becomes a fair coin flip bet in our view.
- Serbia vs Germany Bet 2: Both teams to score (no) at odds of 2.00 with Betway
Wirtz is the ideal man to unpick Serbia’s low block
Florian Wirtz carries a 7.72 rating in this competition. He sits in the 93rd percentile for expected assists.
His 33 line-breaking passes also place him in the 100th percentile. That profile looks ideal for a night against a deep-lying defence. Wirtz also scored and assisted in Liverpool’s 3-1 win at Crystal Palace on Sunday. This earned him an 8.8 rating.
However, one goal contribution in three Nations League appearances is hardly an outstanding return. Germany beat Serbia 2-0 in October. Still, we believe Wirtz is well worth backing to create a goal on Friday at a fair 40% implied probability.
- Serbia vs Germany Bet 3: Florian Wirtz 1+ assist at odds of 2.62 with Betway