Our betting expert expects Roma to be comfortable winners in the Derby della Capitale, consolidate fifth place and hopefully overtake AC Milan.
Best bets for Roma vs Lazio
- 1x2 - Roma at odds of 1.52 on Betway
- Overs/unders - under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.91 on Betway
- Anytime goalscorer - Donyell Malen at odds of 2.02 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Roma 1-0 Lazio
- Goalscorers prediction: Roma: Donyell Malen
Roma maintained their push for a place in next season’s Champions League with a late comeback win last week. After taking an early lead against Parma, the hosts found themselves 2-1 down with just three minutes of regulation time remaining. However, they then took control of the match, scoring twice in added time to snatch all three points.
The result left them level on points with AC Milan, giving them hope of overtaking the Rossoneri across the final two matchdays. As things stand, the Giallorossi would only be good for a place in the Europa League. However, that spot isn’t guaranteed, as Como are only two points behind and still in contention.
As a result, Gian Piero Gasperini’s men must be at their very best when hosting their fiercest rivals this weekend. Lazio must be frustrated after their midweek Coppa Italia final defeat to Inter Milan. Maurizio Sarri’s charges suffered consecutive defeats to the Nerazzurri in different competitions within the space of a few days.
It was a bruising week for Lazio. They don’t want to lose the Derby della Capitale. Not only is pride at stake, but the Biancocelesti hope to avoid finishing outside the top eight for the first time since 2013/14. However, Lazio have only lost successive Serie A matches once this season. This suggests they will not go down without a fight against Roma on Sunday.
Probable lineups for Roma vs Lazio
Roma expected lineup: Svilar, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso, Celik, Cristante, Kone, Franca, Soule, Dybala, Malen
Lazio expected lineup: Motta, Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares, Basic, Patric, Taylor, Isaksen, Zaccagni, Noslin
All signs point to a ‘home’ win
After winning their last three league matches on the bounce, Roma should enter the derby with confidence. To put it into perspective, that’s as many wins as they registered in their previous nine such matches. The hosts will be determined to finish inside the top four for the first time since the 2017/18 season.
It’s worth mentioning that Gasperini’s men are unbeaten across their last five league matches and in 11 Serie A home games. Lazio head into the fixture on the back of two defeats in all competitions. In the league specifically, their recent five matches have produced two losses, two wins and a draw.
The Giallorossi have won three of the last four head-to-heads, with the other ending in a stalemate. They have also claimed victory in four of the last five home encounters. After a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture, Roma are on course for a league double over their rivals for the first time since 2015/16.
- Roma vs Lazio Betting Tip 1: 1x2 - Roma at odds of 1.52 on Betway
Roma’s back line to hold firm
These teams haven’t been involved in high-scoring league matches. Roma’s combined goals for and against average at home in Serie A stands at 2.28 per game, while Lazio’s away figure is 1.50. Gasperini’s men have scored at least once in each of their last 13 league games, including in each of their last 11 as hosts.
Roma are also excellent defensively. They’ve conceded just 10 goals at home all season, which is the best record in the division. They concede an average of 0.86 goals per game at any venue, which makes them likely to keep Lazio quiet on Sunday. To aid this pick, Sarri’s troops have scored just 14 goals in 18 away dates, averaging 0.78 goals per game.
Across the last four derbies and Roma’s last five home meetings, they have conceded just once in each run. All of their last eight head-to-heads have produced under 2.5 goals, which is likely to play out again.
- Roma vs Lazio Betting Tip 2: Overs/unders - under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.91 on Betway
Malen unstoppable since Roma switch
Ever since his loan move from Aston Villa, Donyell Malen has been in excellent form for Roma. The Dutch forward has scored 16 goals in just 13 league appearances, which means he averages 1.23 goals per Serie A match. His goals make up 24% of Roma’s league tally this season.
He’s already become an integral part of the team and will be crucial this weekend. Malen netted a brace in Roma’s late win over Parma. Those two goals made it six goals in his last five league matches.
He registered eight goal involvements in that stretch of games, adding two assists to his name as well. Malen will be a threat to Lazio and is our likely candidate to score the only goal of the game.
- Roma vs Lazio Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Donyell Malen at odds of 2.02 on Betway