Our betting expert expects Freiburg to exceed expectations and extend their 15-match unbeaten home streak against sixth-placed Bayer Leverkusen.
Best bets for Freiburg vs Leverkusen
- Draw no bet – Freiburg to win at odds of 2.00 on Betway
- Over 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.85 on Betway
- Both teams to score in first-half – Yes at odds of 3.80 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Freiburg 2-1 Leverkusen
- Goalscorers prediction: Freiburg: Igor Matanovic, Vincenzo Grifo; Leverkusen: Patrik Schick
Freiburg have been one of the most inconsistent teams this term. Eintracht Frankfurt inflicted the latest of their nine defeats – marking their second loss in three games. Both defeats for the Breisgau-Brasilianer came away from home.
Returning to the Europa-Park Stadion changes everything. Julian Schuster’s side have been near invincible there. They are one of only four Bundesliga teams to have lost just one home match all season – alongside Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart. More impressively, Freiburg are unbeaten in 15 straight competitive home games.
Leverkusen occupy the final European spot, seven points ahead of Freiburg with a game in hand. However, their recent form has been less than impressive. Three competitive matches without a win tell the story.
The Schwarzroten are juggling tasks across multiple fronts. Their poor streak started with a 1-0 loss at Union Berlin. Then came back-to-back home draws against Olympiakos in the Champions League playoff second leg and Mainz in the Bundesliga.
The visitors are desperate to return to winning ways. However, Freiburg at home are an entirely different beast. Despite recent away setbacks, the Europa-Park Stadion should inspire another home victory. Leverkusen possess the quality, but Freiburg have the fortress.
Probable lineups for Freiburg vs Leverkusen
Freiburg expected lineup: Atubolu, Treu, Ginter, Ogbus, Gunter, Osterhage, Eggestein, Grifo, Holer, Suzuki, Matanovic
Leverkusen expected lineup: Blaswich, Quansah, Andrich, Tapsoba, Oermann, Fernandez, Palacios, Grimaldo, Poku, Hofmann, Schick
Breisgau Brazilians for maximum points
Freiburg have tasted defeats recently. However, returning to play on home turf changes everything. They are undefeated in 10 straight league games at Europa-Park Stadion. All three of their latest losses – to Stuttgart, Hoffenheim and Frankfurt – came away from home.
In the home table, Freiburg are the fifth-best team with seven wins, three draws and just one defeat. Their four-match winning streak at the Europa-Park Stadion has reignited belief in a top-six finish.
Leverkusen are aware of the threat. The home crowd act as a true 12th man. Kasper Hjulmand’s Werkself have been inconsistent on their travels, winning only two of their last five league trips. Their away form does not inspire confidence.
Freiburg clearly have the edge. While Leverkusen could cause damage, the home advantage titles this contest in favour of Freiburg. An eighth home win of the season would move Freiburg into joint-fourth for the best home record in the division.
The momentum is with the hosts. Therefore, backing them to avoid defeat and likely win is the smart play.
- Freiburg vs Leverkusen Betting Tip 1: Draw no bet – Freiburg to win, at odds of 2.00 on Betway
Goals in flow at Europa-Park
Freiburg’s recent games have provided plenty of entertainment. Two of their last three competitive outings cleared the 2.5 mark – the exception is the latest 2-0 loss to Frankfurt. At home, this trend is even stronger. Three of their last five home wins across all competitions have come by a 2-1 margin.
In their 24 Bundesliga games, 15 have seen over 2.5 goals. That is an average of three goals per game. Notably, 21 of Freiburg’s 34 league goals this season have arrived on home turf.
Leverkusen follow a similar pattern. 13 of Leverkusen’s 23 matches have gone over 2.5 goals. They have netted 19 of their 44 Bundesliga goals away from home. However, their form on the road is patchy as they are winless in six of 11 travels.
Both teams carry genuine threat. Freiburg are confident and dangerous at home. Leverkusen can score on the road, but they struggle to control games. Everything points to an open contest with both teams finding the net.
- Freiburg vs Leverkusen Betting Tip 2: Over 2.5 total goals, at odds of 1.85 on Betway
Entertaining start to the game
Schuster’s Freiburg have been dismal on the road. However, they are an entirely different beast at home. Last time at Europa-Park Stadion, they took the lead against Borussia Monchengladbach and were ahead at the break in their 2-1 victory.
In their last three home games, Freiburg have netted four first-half strikes and taken the lead at the interval on each occasion. Starting fast on home turf is becoming a habit for the Breisgau-Brasilianer.
Leverkusen arrive in poor form. They have scored just once across their last three competitive outings. However, they used to be prolific early before this wretched streak. In six of their last 10 competitive games, they struck first and led at half-time, scoring eight goals across those opening halves.
Both teams have the quality to make an early mark. Freiburg are confident starters at home. Leverkusen, despite recent struggles, are well-equipped to score early. The opening period should be tense and competitive. Expect both sides to find the net before the break.
- Freiburg vs Leverkusen Betting Tip 3: Both teams to score in first-half – Yes, at odds of 3.80 on Betway