Our betting expert expects an open start to this game, with Barcelona eventually taking control and winning by at least two goals.
Best bets for Barcelona vs Villarreal
- Barcelona -1 Handicap at odds of 1.75 on Betway
- First half - Both teams to score at odds of 3.20 on Betway
- Second half - Villarreal to score under 0.5 goals at odds of 1.70 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Barcelona 3-1 Villarreal
- Goalscorers prediction - Barcelona: Raphinha, Ferran Torres, Fermin Lopez - Villarreal: Nicolas Pepe
Barcelona were comfortable 3-0 winners against Levante last weekend. That was a much-needed response after their worst week since the 2024 appointment of Hansi Flick.
In their previous two games, Barca had conceded six goals in defeats to Atletico Madrid and Girona. They surrendered the top spot as a result of their Catalan derby loss. However, Flick’s side quickly returned to the summit after Real Madrid slipped up last Saturday.
Villarreal head into this match following back-to-back one-goal wins over Levante and Valencia. With 51 points on the board, they are in a very strong position to secure Champions League qualification. However, Marcelino’s team have still lost four of their last eight games in all competitions.
Probable lineups for Barcelona vs Villarreal
Barcelona expected lineup: J. Garcia, Cancelo, E. Garcia, Cubarsi, Kounde, De Jong, Pedri, Raphinha, Fermin, Yamal, Ferran
Villarreal expected lineup: Junior, Cardona, Veiga, Navarro, Mourino, Moleiro, Comesana, Gueye, Buchanan, Pepe, Mikautadze
Barca to ease home in a top-three showdown
While these sides are only separated by two places, the gulf in quality is much wider than that. Villarreal have done a good job of consistently beating the weaker teams in La Liga. However, they have struggled against the best sides in Spain and Europe.
The Yellow Submarine ended the Champions League with a miserable return of just one point from eight matches. That was the joint-worst tally, along with Kairat of Kazakhstan. They’ve also lost all four La Liga matches against top-four opponents by two-goal margins.
It’s hard to see that record improving against a Barcelona side that welcomed Pedri back from injury last weekend. The Catalans have won 83% of their home league fixtures by at least two goals. They are likely to provide value with a -1 handicap on Matchday 26.
- Barcelona vs Villarreal Bet 1: Barcelona -1 Handicap at odds of 1.75 on Betway
An open start expected at Camp Nou
Barcelona’s defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed in recent matches. They were blown away by four first-half goals in the Copa del Rey against Atleti.
Their defence was far from solid in the first 45 minutes against Levante last weekend. The strugglers went very close to scoring after less than 20 seconds. That was the first of two big chances they created before the interval.
Villarreal are a more clinical side than Levante, and they could take advantage of those issues. Nicolas Pepe has the pace to exploit the home team’s high line. Meanwhile, Georges Mikautadze is in good form with three goals in his last four appearances.
Therefore, backing both teams to score in the first half seems appealing, with an implied probability of 31.3%.
- Barcelona vs Villarreal Bet 2: First half - Both teams to score at odds of 3.20 on Betway
Hosts to keep it tight after the break
Conceding early goals but regaining control after the break has been a clear trend in Barcelona’s home matches this season. After an unconvincing opening 45 minutes, they only allowed 0.05 xG after the break last week.
The Catalan giants are yet to concede a second-half goal at home in La Liga this season. They’ve scored 22 times without reply in front of their own fans after the interval. Meanwhile, 68% of all the goals they’ve allowed in the league this term have come in the first half.
That suggests Villarreal will need to strike early if they’re to stand any chance in this encounter. Barca will also have quality off the bench, with all of their attacking players expected to be available. That bodes well for their chances of wearing down another visiting team.
Backing Villarreal to score under 0.5 goals in the second half seems promising, with an implied probability of 58.8%.
- Barcelona vs Villarreal Bet 3: Second half - Villarreal to score under 0.5 goals at odds of 1.70 on Betway