Our betting expert expects the title-chasing hosts to claim a comfortable victory, with Viktor Gyokeres breaking the deadlock.
Best bets for Arsenal vs Burnley
- Viktor Gyokeres to score first at odds of 3.60 on Betway
- Arsenal -2 Handicap at odds of 1.78 on Betway
- Second half - Arsenal to score over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.75 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Arsenal 4-0 Burnley
- Goalscorers prediction - Arsenal: Viktor Gyokeres x2, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka
Arsenal have bounced back from consecutive Premier League defeats in April. They’ve won their last three in the English top flight without conceding to regain control of the title race. Mikel Arteta’s team will be crowned champions if they win this match and triumph at Selhurst Park next Sunday.
Burnley’s relegation has long since been confirmed after a disappointing season for the Lancashire club. They did record a creditable 2-2 draw at home to Aston Villa last weekend under interim boss Mike Jackson. However, the Clarets had lost five in a row in the league prior to that.
Probable lineups for Arsenal vs Burnley
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie, Rice, Lewis-Skelly, Saka, Eze, Trossard, Gyokeres
Burnley expected lineup: Weiss, Walker, Esteve, Tuanzebe, Pires, Ugochukwu, Luis, Tchaouna, Hannibal, Anthony, Flemming
Gyokeres to set the Gunners on their way
While Gyokeres has not been as prolific as Arsenal hoped, the Swedish international has still played a crucial role. His 14 Premier League goals have come at a respectable rate of one every 158 minutes. The ex-Sporting striker is in good form ahead of this game, having netted three times in his past four appearances.
It took Gyokeres just nine minutes to break the deadlock in Arsenal’s last home league game against Fulham. He went on to net twice before the interval in that clash.
Gyokeres has netted in the opening 15 minutes on three occasions this season across all competitions. One of those goals came in the reverse fixture against Burnley, when he headed home the opener in the 14th minute.
Having scored four goals in Arsenal’s last four Premier League home fixtures, Gyokeres is the outstanding candidate to net first, with an implied probability of 27.8%.
- Arsenal vs Burnley Bet 1: Viktor Gyokeres to score first at odds of 3.60 on Betway
Arsenal to boost goal difference
Winning the game will be Arsenal's main priority. However, they can boost their title chances even further by securing a clear victory.
The Gunners currently have a goal difference of +42, compared to Man City’s +43. This is the ideal fixture for them to try to boost that. A very crucial win could mean they only need to draw their final match against Crystal Palace.
That will ensure Arteta’s side do not let up if they’re a goal or two in front. They’ve already won six Premier League home fixtures this season by margins of three or more goals.
Burnley have by far the worst record in the division, with a total xGA of 72.0 (expected goals against). They’ve also created the fewest xG with 31.3. The Clarets are winless in 11 games in all competitions, and are likely to suffer a heavy defeat.
- Arsenal vs Burnley Bet 2: Arsenal -2 Handicap at odds of 1.78 on Betway
Burnley to struggle after the break
The home side will be somewhat nervous at kick-off on Monday night. Arsenal are within touching distance of their first Premier League title in 22 years. That could potentially lead to a slightly jittery start. However, they should start scoring frequently once they break the deadlock.
With goal difference potentially at play, Arteta may opt for a more offensive style of play, even if his team are ahead. The Gunners have scored 59% of their league goals after the break this season. They average 1.28 second-half goals per game at home.
The leaders should better that against a vulnerable Burnley defence. The visitors have conceded 1.5 goals in the second half per away match on average in the Premier League.
Given that, backing Arsenal to score over 1.5 second-half goals seems good with an implied probability of 57.1%.
- Arsenal vs Burnley Bet 3: Second half - Arsenal to score over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.75 on Betway